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  • The Key Questions Of The NBA Stretch Run

    The Key Questions Of The NBA Stretch Run

    With the trade deadline passed, a mostly successful All-Star Weekend in the books, and a full two-thirds of the regular season played, the NBA’s sprint to the playoffs is now upon us. The sample size is large enough, and the standings have stratified to a sufficient degree to provide relative clarity on everyone’s 2019-20 destiny. Even so, a number of important questions remain unanswered as the two-month stretch run commences on Thursday. Let’s break them down, starting with the most crucial battle for playoff positioning in the league.

    Who will grab the East’s all-important 2-seed? At 46-8, Milwaukee is running away with the Eastern Conference for the second straight year, and even resting Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t likely to derail them. [The Bucks are 5-1 with a +12.8 point differential this season in games the presumptive MVP doesn’t play.] With the top spot essentially locked in, the race for the second seed becomes critical for several reasons. First, the East has a crystal clear top six, and any one of those squads can realistically win a playoff series. Thus, nabbing the 2-seed basically guarantees a trip to the Conference Semifinals by virtue of avoiding all those teams in Round One, instead garnering a favorable matchup with the 7-seed (likely either Brooklyn or Orlando). Second, the 2-seed (and 3-seed as well) remains on the opposite side of the bracket from the dominant Bucks until the Conference Finals, allowing for more of a chance they slip up against another team or sustain injuries which could weaken them. Lastly, if chalk abounds and the second- and third-seeded teams meet up in Round Two, the home court advantage in that series could be vitally important.

    With apologies to Miami, Philly, and Indiana, unless the standings warp considerably over the next few weeks, this race comes down to the defending champion Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics. At 40-15, the Raptors have been one of the league’s most compelling stories, mounting a spirited title defense in spite of losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard in free agency. Toronto won fifteen straight games before dropping their final tilt going into the All-Star Break, and they currently sit a game-and-a-half clear of the Celtics in the 2-spot. The lack of an individually brilliant creator like Kawhi could come back to bite them in the postseason, but in the regular season at least, their on-a-string defense, high-IQ rotation, and overall chemistry has been more than enough to make up for Leonard’s production and keep them on a pace ahead of last year’s 58-win campaign. The Raptors have the league’s second-ranked defense — behind the Bucks of course, who are straight-up lapping the field — which is a testament to the integrity of head coach Nick Nurse’s scheme, because Toronto has had a ton of guys miss time with injuries. [All-Stars Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam have missed 12 and 11 games, respectively, while Fred VanVleet has missed nine, Marc Gasol nineteen, Serge Ibaka eleven, and Norm Powell seventeen.]

    Much like last season’s title team, the roster is ultra-deep with competent rotation players. President of Basketball Operations Masai Ujiri continues to spin straw into gold, unearthing contributors like Terence Davis, Chris Boucher, Matt Thomas, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, while other franchises yearn to find just one such guy. After winning Most Improved Player last season, Siakam has taken another massive leap, becoming a legitimate star and borderline top-10 player in the league (23.5/ 7.5/ 3.5 on 46/36/80 shooting splits in 35.0 minutes per game, along with elite, versatile defense).

    As with Boston and Milwaukee, Toronto has faced one of the league’s easiest slates thus far, but the schedule tightens up over the final stretch. The Raps and Celtics play each other only once more (March 20th in Toronto; Boston currently leads the season series 2-1), but they still have to face the Bucks three more times, two of which come in a home-and-home at the beginning of April. Beyond Milwaukee, there are road games to go against Denver, Utah, Philly, Memphis, Houston, and Miami, so holding off the Celtics is by no means going to be a cakewalk. But the Raptors are beginning to finally get healthy — Gasol and Powell should be back relatively soon — and even if the top-tier talent isn’t what it once was, it would be unwise to doubt the culture, infrastructure, and heart of the defending champs.

    While currently sitting in third in the East, the Celtics sport the profile of an inner-circle contender. They are a top-five outfit at both ends of the floor (3rd and 5th in Offensive and Defensive Rating, respectively), and head coach Brad Stevens deploys the most complete collection of guards and wings in the league. Having so many skilled players on the floor has resulted in an offensive ecosystem flourishing with crisp ball and player movement, and they genuinely seem to enjoy playing with each other. [Swapping out Kyrie Irving for alleged saint Kemba Walker will tend to have that effect.] The proof of concept is certainly there after their thrilling, 141-133 double-OT win over the Clippers on Thursday night, going toe-to-toe with one of the league’s biggest presumed threats to the throne. Jayson Tatum showed a glimpse of his (and the team’s) ceiling in that game, torching L.A. for 39 points and flat-out punking Kawhi Leonard in a mano-a-mano shootout down the stretch.

    The first-time All-Star has been cooking in February, averaging 28.3/ 7.3/ 3.4 on 48/47/71 shooting splits in seven games this month. A team with that version of Tatum as its best player is a much different animal from one reliant on Walker to be the offensive alpha dog. If Tatum keeps scorching the nets over the next 28 games, the C’s may be too potent for Toronto to hold them off. [One subplot to watch for: if the Cavaliers should finally decide to buy out Tristan Thompson — there are legitimate reasons for and against it, to be clear — Boston would be a very likely suitor for his services. Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter have been better-than-serviceable for Boston this year, but adding another proven big who can bang with the Embiids and Sabonises and Lopezes of the world and also defend perimeter players in a pinch would make this roster basically matchup-proof.]

    Will the old heads or the young bucks take the 8-seed in the West? While perhaps not as consequential as the battle for positioning discussed above, the race for the final playoff spot in the West will be fascinating nonetheless. Whichever of the four teams (sorry, Phoenix and Sacramento, but I don’t see it) comes out on top is likely to get ritualistically slaughtered by the West-leading Lakers, but the implications for their respective franchises could be far-reaching. The eighth spot is currently occupied by the surprising Memphis Grizzlies, who have surged to a 15-5 record since the calendar flipped to 2020 to take a commanding four-game lead over Portland in the 9-hole. The Grizz leaned further into their youth movement at the trade deadline, sending out vets Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and Solomon Hill for what amounted to an injured Justise Winslow and Gorgui Dieng’s crap contract. [Quick aside: Dieng is in his seventh pro season but is somehow already 30 years old. I don’t know why, but I find that alarming.]

    A twenty-game sample is enough to suspect something real is happening in Memphis — and there can be no doubt rookie Ja Morant is headed for superstardom — but we’re about to find out for sure. Memphis has enjoyed the easiest schedule in the West to this point in the year (11th-easiest overall; damn is the bottom of the Eastern Conference terrible AGAIN), but that’s set to change with a quickness. Per tankathon.com, Memphis has the most difficult remaining schedule in the league by a significant margin, headlined by two tilts against their possible first-round opponent, the Lakers. They have five more games against the competition for no. 8 (Portland, San Antonio, and New Orleans), including a home-and-home against the Pelicans in late March which is shaping up to be must-watch television. Each of these head-to-head matchups within this cohort become vital because they effectively count as “double wins,” while also determining potential tiebreakers.

    Winslow could turn out to be a valuable contributor if he can get and stay healthy, but the risk in their deadline strategy is that too much leadership and experience left the building, creating a vacuum which cannot be filled as the slate gets more treacherous. Based solely on the cushion they’ve built up, the Grizz remain the prohibitive favorite to capture the spot, but it may be a bumpier ride than what they’ve experienced over the last six weeks or so. No matter what, this season represents an unqualified success for a franchise which is WAY ahead of schedule in its rebuild, so it’s really all house money at this point. [As an added bonus, the top-6 protected first-round pick they owe to Boston — thanks, Jeff Green! — long considered one of the most valuable draft assets out there, will now convey to the Celtics as a disappointing mid-round pick in what is widely considered a weak draft. Everything’s coming up Grindhouse!]

    It’s hard to count out Portland so long as they have the virtuosic performance of Damian Lillard, but, umm…do they? Dame left the Blazer’s final game before the break with a groin injury, and he is due to be re-examined later this week to determine the extent. [Dame was forced to miss the All-Star Game with the injury, though he was still able to put on a perfectly acceptable rap performance extolling the virtues of his large bank account.] Lillard has been the alpha and omega for this injury-ravaged Portland squad, and a significant stretch of missed games by him would be the death blow for its playoff chances. With or without Dame, this team isn’t going anywhere special this season anyway, so seizing the opportunity to shut it down and regroup for another run next year (when Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins, Rodney Hood, et al should presumably be healthy again) may not be the worst thing in the world. [Yes, I know Dame doesn’t see it that way.]

    The good news for the Spurs is their offense kicked into gear as if by magic on December 23rd when LaMarcus Aldridge discovered you get a whole extra point for shooting the ball from two feet further away. [Was it a Festivus miracle? Was there an airing of grievances with DeMar DeRozan involved? We may never know, but Aldridge, a career 28.3% shooter from deep prior to this year, is shooting 40.1% in ’19-’20 on a healthy number of attempts, and the Spurs are all the way up to 10th in Offensive Rating.] San Antonio would go 9-6 over the ensuing month, their best stretch of the season. Unfortunately, they are 3-8 since and are now sitting at 23-31, five full games back of Memphis. Their defense continues to be a train wreck (25th in Defensive Rating), and for some reason Coach Pop still appears allergic to the idea of trying to stanch the bleeding by deploying All-Defense-caliber guards Dejounte Murray and Derrick White at the same time. [Pop also saw fit to cut current All-Star Bam Adebayo on the second day of Team USA training camp over the summer in favor of such luminaries as Myles Turner and Mason Plumlee. Pop himself has joked about it, but it’s becoming fair to ask whether he actually has some sort of Midas Touch when it comes to personnel, or if most of his mystique amounts to “he got to coach Tim Duncan for nineteen years.”]

    The Spurs have made the postseason for 22 consecutive seasons, a streak they clearly do not want to see broken. Memphis’ difficult schedule may provide San Antonio with an opening, but even so, it’s tough to envision a team which can’t muster consistent defensive effort from night to night making up five games with only 28 remaining. And besides, from a fan perspective, why would we want to watch the same-old Spurs get curb stomped by LeBron and AD in Round One when there’s a team with juuuuust a bit more sizzle lurking close behind them?

    The most intriguing remaining option is, of course, the New Orleans Pelicans. Much like the Spurs, at 23-32 and 5.5 games back of Memphis, it is a huge hill to climb, but no one is equipped for a vertical ascent quite like Zion Williamson and the Pellies. Since returning from injury, Zion has been exactly as advertised, and then some. In ten games, he’s averaging 22.1/ 7.5/ 2.2 on 58/36/65 shooting in only 27 minutes a game. He has predictably struggled to pick up NBA defense, especially amid the less-than-ideal defensive ecosystem around him. That said, with Zion on the floor, the Pelicans are GOOD, full stop. They are a mammoth +12.9 points per 100 possessions when the rookie phenom is out there, compared to -3.2 per 100 when he sits. New Orleans is 5-5 in games Zion plays, which undersells his impact because some early losses are inevitable as the team reorients its rotation and roles. Also, four of those losses came against Denver, Houston, Milwaukee, and OKC, all of which would be defensible under any circumstances.

    The silver lining for New Orleans is they are the bizarro Memphis. Prior to the All-Star Break, the Pels faced the league’s toughest schedule (with a bullet), and now they have by far the NBA’s easiest slate for the remainder of the season. They are at Portland on Friday night, when the Blazers could be without Lillard, so right off the bat New Orleans has the opportunity to begin to flip the standings. There is the aforementioned home-and-home with Memphis in March (though it’s a bit of a disadvantage for the Pels because they also have a home game with Sacramento sandwiched in-between), and then two of their final six games of the year will be in San Antonio, including game no. 82. Could we get a de facto play-in game between the league’s past and its future on the final night of the season? Take it away, KG:

    Can the Clippers put it together? The best way I can put it is this: the 2019-20 LA Clippers might be the most disappointing buzz-saw in history. When we strip away the expectations and just take a snapshot of where they are, it’s impressive: 37-18, third in the West, ranked sixth in offense, defense, and point differential. When their best player is on the floor — who just happens to be the reigning Finals and All-Star Game MVP, and is having his best overall season — the Clips have a net rating of +10.8 points per 100 possessions, a massive number. They are succeeding despite Kawhi and Paul George playing only a combined 76 games out of a possible 110, a testament to their depth of talent. Within the last two weeks, the front office added both Marcus Morris, Sr. and (reportedly) Reggie Jackson to an already-deep group, giving them proven playoff performers to fill virtually every meaningful minute of court time going forward. What is there not to like about this team’s chances?

    Weirdly, kind of a lot. Again, it’s hard to argue with the numbers, but actually watching them play often paints a very different picture. The ’18-’19 team, which won 48 games despite having significantly less talent in what was considered a transition year, exhibited a joy and connectedness on the court which is notably lacking on this far better team. Perhaps the team is simply taking on the character of its best player, and the aloof, mechanical competence of Kawhi can’t help but trickle down to everyone else. The double-OT thriller against Boston on Thursday was a microcosm of the can’t-quite-put-my-finger-on-it unease I feel about this team. As I mentioned earlier, Boston’s offense throughout the game looked sharp and free-flowing. By contrast, L.A.’s sets often appeared clunky, ill-conceived, and prone to devolving into an isolation up against the shot clock. Both are clearly elite teams, but Boston was able to just run its stuff, while the Clippers had to keep themselves in the game with blunt force talent (and a ton of miraculous shot-making by Lou Williams, who finished with 35 points). Hell, maybe I’m looking at this wrong. Maybe it bodes well for them that when things break down in the crucible of the playoffs, they can just run simple actions and still get buckets. In the end, the team with the best player usually wins, after all.

    But something about the chemistry of this team feels slightly off, and I’m not sure adding two more guys to the mix, neither of whom carries an exactly sterling reputation as a teammate from previous stops, is the answer. As I discussed last week, Morris has value as a big-bodied forward who can defend multiple spots and space the floor. His highest and best use could come as a small-ball center, should L.A. match up with Houston’s crazy science experiment in the postseason. That said, he is another ball-stopper on a team rife with them, and he needs to have a VERY clear understanding of his place in the team’s hierarchy so he doesn’t start hijacking late-game possessions from Kawhi, PG, and Sweet Lou in critical situations.

    I’m torn about the purported Reggie Jackson signing as well. The upside of the acquisition (as with Morris, to an extent) is that having him on your roster keeps him OFF of the Lakers, where he would likely be a far more valuable piece. If the Clips are in fact engaged in this sort of intra-arena sabotage, I am 100% here for it. As a practical matter, I would much rather have a healthy Pat Beverley ravenously munching up point guard minutes over Jackson, who provides very little of use on this particular roster. Even so, Reggie sitting on the bench waving a towel has value, considering otherwise he might be actively damaging them as the exact rotation cog their chief rivals needed. It’s crazy this sort of gamesmanship is a part of our basketball culture in 2020 — especially considering franchises like the Knicks can’t find good players at all, period — but here we are.

    Am I picking nits? Of course. But with the margins between the tippy-top contenders this small, the stop-and-start, stilted chemistry of this roster could trip them up when the stakes are raised. No matter how much talent you possess, continuity matters in basketball. The Clippers have thus far developed precious little of it, and time is running out to do so.

    Can anyone challenge Giannis Antetokounmpo for MVP? In a word, no. I’ve tried a dozen different ways to craft a case with any alternative argument I can think of: are we fundamentally misapprehending what makes a player valuable? Are his statistics misleading? Are the other Bucks actually too good? Will the voters try to be contrarian? Any way you slice it, there is no escaping the gravity of Giannis. He’s by far the best player on by far the best team. He’s a killer on both ends of the court. And by whatever standard you want to use, he’s better than he was last season, when he, you know, also won MVP. Barring a catastrophic injury, he’s the lock of all locks. Vegas agrees: Giannis is currently an overwhelming favorite at -450 at Bovada to win MVP. The next best odds are Luka Doncic (?) at +650, with LeBron, Harden, and AD coming in behind the Dallas wunderkind. [Basketball-Reference’s MVP Tracker also gives Giannis roughly a 58% chance of taking home the award, which even feels a tad conservative.]

    Runaway victories could be a theme of the major awards this season. Besides Giannis, short of Zion playing like an MVP himself for the next two months, Ja Morant is a near-lock for Rookie of the Year. Toronto’s Nick Nurse should comfortably win Coach of the Year, though I suppose there is a reasonable case for Taylor Jenkins of Memphis or Erik Spoelstra of Miami. Sixth Man of the Year should be a two-man race between Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder. Defensive Player of the Year will come down to Giannis, two-time reigning winner Rudy Gobert, and Anthony Davis. [I see you, Bam, but it probably isn’t your time yet.] As I’ve discussed previously, Most Improved Player is the most wide-open race, with Devonte’ Graham, Brandon Ingram, Luka Doncic, Bam Adebayo, Pascal Siakam, Domantas Sabonis, and a few others in the mix. There could also be some goofiness on the All-NBA teams, depending on whether or not the league classifies Anthony Davis as a center. [They should, in case you’re wondering.] Otherwise, there likely won’t be much intrigue or surprise surrounding the end-of-season awards.

    Will any dark horse contenders emerge? For most of the season, the consensus has been — and continues to be, if Vegas odds are any indication — there are three true, inner-circle contenders for the NBA title (the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) and a jumble of also-rans below them. Do any of the long shots (Houston, Denver, Philly, Utah, Boston, Toronto, or Miami) have a chance to break clear of the pack over the next two months and cement their status among the top tier? We already discussed Boston and Toronto, and the Celtics seem like the most likely candidate to make another leap. The Sixers are the best-equipped talent-wise, but their complete inability to establish any sort of consistency or win road games makes it difficult to imagine the switch we’ve all been waiting for is about to be flipped. [Philly could be an intriguing buy-low team in the playoffs. They would likely have to get past Milwaukee in Round Two, but their size and defensive potential may be a better stylistic fit for a seven-game format than the regular season. I’m not entirely buying the thing I’m trying to talk myself into, however. We have an awful lot of evidence this just isn’t a particularly great team.]

    Denver remains one elite scorer away, and while it’s reasonable to think he’ll one day get there, Michael Porter, Jr. isn’t ready for prime time yet. I love Miami’s super-weird roster, but a team with Jimmy Butler as its best player doesn’t have quite enough juice, and I’m not ready to trust a number of their rotation guys in the hothouse of the playoffs until I see it. Utah is interesting. They typically play well in the back half of the season — watch, all the “look out for the Jazz!” columns are coming any day now — and they’re finally starting to figure out how to integrate Mike Conley into Quin Snyder’s system (20/5/5 over his last four games before the break). The pieces fit together, and if Snyder can get by consolidating his rotation down to seven guys in the postseason, their stinky bench becomes much less of an issue. For Utah to truly make the good-to-great jump, though, they’ll need Donovan Mitchell to channel 2006 Dwyane Wade, and I haven’t seen anything to suggest such a leap is forthcoming, at least not yet. It’s one thing to be a player away; it’s quite another to be a complete team and have it still not be enough.

    Last and — if we’re judging purely by physical stature — least, there’s Houston. Since the Robert Covington trade which rendered them the shortest team in modern NBA history, the Rockets have split four games. They buried the Lakers under a barrage of threes and the Celtics under a barrage of free throws, and it’s safe to say they’ll continue to push these high-variance strategies to their logical conclusions until it either wins them a championship or breaks them. [The other side of the coin was on display in a 127-91 shellacking at the hands of Phoenix, with Houston going 11-of-48 from deep.] The Harden/Westbrook pairing has begun to bear fruit, with Russ especially coming to life since the start of 2020 (33.1/ 8.1/ 7.1 in 15 games). Westbrook has eschewed his tendency to launch abominable three-point attempts (he is literally the worst high-volume 3PT shooter in NBA history), and has instead leveraged all the additional space created by removing a non-shooting big from the paint to essentially become a 6-foot-3 Giannis, attacking a spread-out defense off the dribble at every conceivable opportunity.

    The offensive math undoubtedly works, and if the threes are falling on a given night, the opponent may as well pack it up and go home. The question is if they will fall often enough over a four-round playoff run, and even if so, whether or not they can hold up enough on defense and the boards for it to matter. The Rockets weren’t a particularly stout defensive team even with Clint Capela (15th in Defensive Rating), and now it is going to be nigh impossible for them to do much with the kind of size and strength the elite Western teams can bring to bear. [That is, so long as teams stop getting baited into trying to post up James Harden. Seriously, we’ve been over this. Fucking stop it.] Houston is the league’s ultimate wild card, which seems to be just how GM Daryl Morey likes it. I don’t think a team can win sixteen games against elite competition with such a boom-or-bust strategy, but given all the stomach-churning ways the Rockets have failed to get over the hump in the last five years, there’s no real downside in trying.

    Top Photo Credit: nbcsports.com

  • Trade Deadline Grades

    Trade Deadline Grades

    The inexorable march towards the playoffs reached another milestone last Thursday with the passing of the NBA trade deadline. A flurry of moves took place over the last eighteen hours or so leading up to the 3 PM ET deadline, and now that the dust has mostly settled, it’s time to zoom out and assess the damage. Some contenders tinkered around the margins (Miami, Philly, Denver, and the Clippers), some rebuilding/rebooting teams looked to add future assets and/or undervalued pieces (Golden State, Atlanta, Memphis, Washington, and New York), and Detroit, well…yikes.

    I already gave my thoughts about the four-team, twelve-player mega-deal between Minnesota, Houston, Atlanta, and Denver last week, and you can find them here. That analysis is baked into the grades you’ll see this week, and to the extent subsequent moves by those teams changed my thinking on the original trade, we’ll cross those bridges as we come to them. Let’s get started, and where else to begin but with the deadline’s most active team, now sitting on an almost completely reshaped roster:

    MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

    Received: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Evan Turner (waived), Jarred Vanderbilt, James Johnson, Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans, 2020 first-round pick (via Houston)

    Sent: Robert Covington, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Keita Bates-Diop, Noah Vonleh, Shabazz Napier, Jordan Bell

    Grade: B

    Considering the Wolves overhauled their entire roster almost overnight, this grade feels like a hedge, but it amounts to an averaging out of some things I liked and some things I didn’t. In a vacuum, I wasn’t huge on the return they got for Robert Covington, in light of how Houston clearly coveted him. They had the Rockets over a barrel, and basically came out of it with a middling first-round pick, two rotation guys they’ll have to pony up for over the summer, and a flier on a completely unproven young dude. It’s fine, I guess, but RoCo’s contract was phenomenally team-friendly, so again, they really didn’t have to do anything with him, especially since he didn’t factor into what came after.

    The main event turned out to be the swap of perennially disappointing former no. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins (plus picks, which we’ll get to in a second) for Karl-Anthony Towns super-friend D’Angelo Russell. In addition to Wiggins, Golden State received a top-3 protected first-rounder from Minny in 2021 — apparently the timing and protections on this pick were a sticking point — as well as a 2021 second-rounder, while the Wolves also get Jacob Evans and Omari Spellman from the Warriors. Minnesota gets the best player in the trade (and the contracts are essentially a wash), so bully for them. At the same time, in the exact inverse of the Houston situation, the Warriors weren’t under duress to move Russell, but knew they could extract a premium from Minny, who had very publicly courted D’Lo as the running mate to appease the disgruntled Towns.

    The premium is the top-3 protected 2021 pick — a draft which experts say is much stronger at the top than the upcoming 2020 draft — and should the pick roll over, it becomes unprotected in 2022. [This could end up being the mystical “double draft,” the year players just graduating high school again become NBA-eligible.] Conceding the pick represents a significant gamble. If the trade works, KAT is spurred into actually trying, and the new-look roster quickly rounds into form, then no harm, no foul. The pick becomes a middling asset they likely won’t miss. On the other hand, it’s not as though the Towns/Russell pairing is a guaranteed home run. The defense might still be a train wreck, and the remainder of the rotation is populated mostly with guys who are either young, will have to adapt to an expanded role, or both.

    The West isn’t about to turn Charmin soft, either the rest of this season or next. If this new edition of the Wolves goes south and they are forced to pivot into another multi-year rebuild, that 2021 pick suddenly becomes one of the league’s best trade chips for Golden State. The Dubs will be getting the band back together next season and will likely be in possession of the top-5 pick they garnered from punting this year. With the contracts they have on the books and two potential top-5 picks on the way, the light-years-ahead crew will be able to elbow their way into the conversation for any superstar who shakes loose in the trade market. [Just speculating, but if a certain Wisconsin-based superhuman who just happens to be friends with Steph Curry should turn down the supermax extension offer he will receive this summer, we could be headed for another protracted, AD-like courtship next season. Again, I don’t know anything, but the Warriors’ actions do nothing to dissuade the notion they are planning for this contingency.]

    Back to the Wolves, though. It’s not crazy to think this new jumble of players could jell into something interesting, even though it probably won’t get them back into the playoff conversation following the thirteen-game losing streak they endured leading up to the deadline. A core of KAT, Russell, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, James Johnson (also acquired at the deadline in a swap for Gorgui Dieng’s onerous contract), Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver, Jake Layman, Spellman, and Jarred Vanderbilt carries some intrigue, but also a metric shit-ton of uncertainty.

    The new squad (minus Russell) handed a surprising 142-115 beat down to the listless Clippers on Saturday, perhaps raising expectations to an unhealthy degree given the roster’s lack of experience, continuity, and dudes who generally take an interest in stopping the opposition from getting buckets. [Apologies to Josh Okogie. You’re cool.] The remaining 31 games of this campaign will serve as a chemistry laboratory, and there won’t be a ton of business for them to do over the summer beyond making their draft picks and shelling out for Beasley and/or Hernangomez. This is their team now, for better or worse. On the whole, they have more talent — and maybe a hair more flexibility — than they did last week, but the Wolves remain a far cry from something resembling contention, even if KAT will now be more content with this reshuffled mediocrity.

    MIAMI HEAT

    Received: Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill

    Sent: Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Dion Waiters and gummies to be named later

    Grade: A-

    Miami’s three-teamer with Memphis and Minnesota at the deadline was an excellent move, all things considered. They nabbed Iguodala, who should be fresh as a daisy after golfing for the last four months rather than grinding through an NBA season. Even at 36, he should offer the Heat some semblance of the multifaceted game which is his trademark, as well as his championship experience and pedigree. [If he turns out to be washed, just memory hole that last sentence.] Iggy’s leverage play also paid off financially, as he was able to negotiate a two-year, $30M extension with Miami as part of the trade. [Year 2 is a team option.] Snagging Crowder and Hill adds to their depth, though it’s unclear whose minutes they’ll be annexing. In any case, while both players have their warts, either one can be trusted to soak up some court time in a playoff series, a statement we can’t yet definitively make about some of the younger names on Miami’s roster.

    Pat Riley may have sold a little low on Justise Winslow, but he’s been a massive injury risk throughout his short career, and in reality, he was going to be the cost of doing business. The deal ends up being a financial masterstroke for Miami, as they get off of nearly $29 million worth of James Johnson and Dion Waiters in ’20-’21, assuming Johnson picks up his player option. [Which he would be crazy not to.] Not even counting the $12.6M they were going to have to discreetly ship to Waiters Island in a brown paper bag next year, getting him away from the team clearly amounts to addition by subtraction of distraction. Memphis must either REALLY like Winslow or just felt pressure to get something done, because they immediately waived Waiters, instantly flushing that $12.6M down the toilet. [The Grizz are projected to have a ton of cap space next season, so they can probably tolerate eating the cap hit rather than using the stretch provision on Waiters, but man, that’s a lot of dead money.]

    What was most notable about Miami’s deadline, however, is what they didn’t do. The trade also almost ended up involving Oklahoma City, who would have sent Danilo Gallinari and his expiring contract to Miami as well. We haven’t gotten the exact story on why the deal didn’t go through, but the issues appeared to be the length of the extension Gallo was attempting to negotiate with Miami, as well as removing the protections on the picks Miami already owes to OKC as part of the Paul George-to-L.A. trade so that Miami would then be able to trade additional firsts to the Thunder in this deal. [If that sounds confusing, trust me, it is.] Whatever the reason, it’s kind of a bummer Miami couldn’t thread the needle on the Gallo part of the deal, because adding the Rooster and Iggy to their existing roster without giving up any of their major young pieces would have vaulted them from nice story and second-tier contender to “Oh shit, these dudes are a PROBLEM.” I understand wanting to keep their cap flexible for the summer of ’21, but it’s still hard to justify not taking a swing at a wide open title window in the service of preserving far-off cap space which may not even be worth anything by the time they can use it. That’s the difference between an A- deadline and what could have been an A+ one.

    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

    Received: Marcus Morris, Sr., Isaiah Thomas (waived), cash

    Sent: Moe Harkless, Jerome Robinson, Derrick Walton, Jr., 2020 first-round pick, swap rights for 2021 first-round pick with Knicks (lol), 2020 second-round pick (via Detroit)

    Grade: C+

    The Clips were the only one of the inner circle contenders to add a rotation-caliber piece at the deadline. [Milwaukee would later announce they were signing Marvin Williams after his buyout from Charlotte, but whatever.] L.A. was a virtual lock to do something. Harkless’s contract is expiring and amounted to a helpful number for salary-matching purposes. And due to the PG trade (and the Stepien Rule), their 2020 pick is the last first-rounder they’ll be allowed to deal until sometime long after Los Angeles has fallen off California into the Pacific. Moving Walton and Robinson cleared up roster spots and helped them get under the luxury tax, at least for the moment.

    It all makes sense, and I get why teams would want to take on Morris and his expiring contract, even in spite of what an asshole he seems to be. He’s a big-bodied forward who can create his own shot, space the floor, and credibly defend other power wings. Those dudes are valuable in today’s game. Only thing is, the Clippers already have TWO better versions of that player in Kawhi and George. When watching L.A. play, there is often a disconnect between how good they should be and how good they actually are. Part of it is the lack of continuity and how often Kawhi and PG have been in and out of the lineup, but another noticeable trend is how the ball tends to get a little sticky on offense. With Kawhi, obviously the juice is worth the squeeze, and the same is mostly true of George. But even if there is a clear talent upgrade from Harkless to Morris, is adding yet another potential ball-stopper to the mix really the answer?

    The assumption coming into the season was the Clippers had the entire season to figure out the proper distribution of roles and touches before the playoffs started. It’s been 51 games, and by and large that hasn’t happened yet, and now they’re injecting another wild card into the mix. With only two months to go — and even more load management cutting further into the chemistry-building process — is the extra talent valuable enough to risk the very real possibility this roster will be unable to discover its best self at any point in Year One of this two-year experiment?

    WASHINGTON WIZARDS

    Received: Jerome Robinson, Shabazz Napier

    Sent: Isaiah Thomas, Jordan McRae

    Grade: B+

    I’m putting the Wizards here because they are basically the remora to the Clippers’ shark, benefiting off the detritus of L.A.’s need to gobble up Morris. Robinson has been a little disappointing in limited opportunities, but he should get a real chance in the wasteland of Washington’s rotation. The guy was a lottery pick a year ago, so taking a flier on him just for acting as the intermediary on L.A.’s behalf is a nice piece of business. Being able to use Thomas as the throw-in to the deal is an added bonus. It looks to be the end of the line for IT, and simply removing him from the equation should be enough to improve the Wizards’ defense from “one of the worst of all time” to “merely dreadful.” The swap of McRae for Napier amounts to trading expiring contracts of guys who don’t factor into either team’s future plans, though Napier’s steady hand at the point should be marginally more valuable to this edition of the Wiz than is McRae’s semi-efficient scoring.

    These aren’t massive, needle-moving deals by new GM Tommy Sheppard. Washington is still faaaaar away from any sort of contention, and what to do with John Wall is going to continue to be an anchor on the team’s flexibility for the foreseeable future. But the ability to nail these more marginal asset plays — along with the opportunistic heists he pulled off for Davis Bertans, Moritz Wagner, and Isaac Bonga over the summer — paints the picture of a competent executive who is building towards bigger things and will be able to consummate “real” deals when they present themselves. After the fifteen years of ineptitude fans endured under former GM Ernie Grunfeld, this front office renaissance is a breath of fresh air.

    PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

    Receive: Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III, 2020 second-round pick (via Orlando)

    Sent: James Ennis III, 2020 second-round pick (via Dallas), 2021 second-round pick (via Denver), 2022 second-round pick (via Toronto)

    Grade: B-

    Credit to GM Elton Brand for trying to plug a major hole (shooting) at a low cost on this bat-shit crazy Philly roster. Burks and Robinson had both been enjoying career years amid limitless opportunity on a depleted (to put it charitably) Golden State team. Both guys bring solid catch-and-shoot chops (37.2% this year from three for Burks; 39.5% for Robinson) and additional athleticism on the wing, which is always useful. Their court time will obviously be drastically reduced in Philly, so there may be some diminishing returns on their potential impact, but the thought process (pun intended) was at least in the right place. Given the quality of the teams’ picks who they traded, it’s unlikely they’ll be missed.

    As with Miami, this grade is based on the things they couldn’t fix. Some marginal shooting is nice (and I’ve liked what I’ve seen out of “Little Dog” Robinson so far for the Sixers in particular), but it doesn’t do anything to solve the big, jumbled Rubik’s Cube that is this roster. It’s unclear if there was any potential deal out there involving either Al Horford or Tobias Harris for a shot-creating guard — that’s a heavy lift, I know — but it’s equally unclear if Brand was even trying to search one out. There is an ungodly amount of talent on this team, but it simply doesn’t fit, and even as notoriously tight-lipped a teammate as Horford isn’t afraid to say it.

    The trade deadline isn’t the time to address the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid conundrum, but that time may be fast approaching, especially if the Sixers flame out early in the playoffs. The consensus has long been Philly would ultimately build around Embiid if one of them had to go, but I’m starting to lean pretty hard in the other direction. The Sixers looked like a totally different team when Embiid missed nine games with a broken finger and Simmons was given the keys to the car. I don’t know what kind of package would be out there for a guy like Embiid, given his injury history and the direction of the league, but if there were a way to somehow restructure this team around Simmons’s gifts (like a Diet Giannis), that feels like the true path to inner circle contention. Besides the actual on-court logistics, Philly’s real problem is they are playing a not-so-quiet tournament in front of our eyes, and the prize is alpha dog status on the team. Until this struggle for dominance is resolved — internally or otherwise — the physical product is going to suffer. But yeah, shooting doesn’t hurt.

    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

    Received: Andrew Wiggins, 2021 top-3 protected first-round pick (via Minnesota), 2020 second-round pick (via Utah), 2020 second-round pick (via Dallas), 2021 second-round pick (via Minnesota), 2021 second-round pick (via Denver), 2022 second-round pick (via Toronto)

    Sent: D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans, Willie Cauley-Stein, Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III

    Grade: B+

    Seems high, I know. I was confused at first by their approach to the deadline as well, but it’s turned into something of an acquired taste. While trading away so many players that you can barely field a team in the middle of the season could be seen as a questionable strategy, it sort of amounts to a *shrug emoji* for a team with the league’s worst record trying to reload for next year. [Robinson has a player option for ’20-’21 and perhaps could have been a decent low-cost piece when they’re at full strength, but it’s a minor quibble.]

    Pure and simple, this was a contending team felled by unfortunate circumstances and stuck in a gap year. Instead of bemoaning their misfortune, however, they’ve used it as an opportunity to spin assets forward and possibly reboot their juggernaut on the fly. How do I come to this conclusion when their major acquisition was Andrew Wiggins, you ask? First, there is the remote possibility inside of Wiggins lives the dominant ultra-wing many envisioned coming out of Kansas, and he just needed a change of scenery and a better organizational culture to access it. It’s unlikely, sure. Five-and-a-half seasons is an awful lot of evidence. But we also can’t prove the negative because we haven’t seen it until now.

    Second, it’s important to view this as an asset play. Wiggins the basketball player is less important to Golden State than Wiggins the asset, just as D’Angelo Russell was before him. D’Lo was never meant to be a fit with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson; he was merely a way to recover some value from the loss of Kevin Durant and keep the Warriors in the great game long-term. Wiggins is a continuation on the theme, as his minimal trade value — along with Minnesota’s poorly-hidden game of footsie with Russell — allowed the Dubs to extract the real prize in the deal, the top-3 protected pick in 2021. The Warriors will likely never trade Steph, but now they are armed with three big, potentially tradeable contracts (Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins), a top-5 pick in the upcoming draft, and a pick of indeterminate-but-easy-to-be-dreamed-upon value in 2021. That’s A TON of ammo to make yet another league-shaking move in one of the next two seasons, and with all of their stars (Wiggins notwithstanding) pushing into the “late prime” phases of their careers, one suspects the front office won’t hesitate to push all its chips to the center one more time.

    That’s why they get such a high grade from me. Their window wasn’t going to slam shut in any case, but they could have allowed this lost season to drop it down part of the way. Instead, they may have managed to prop it open even further. It depends what happens from here, of course, but we shouldn’t be in the business of doubting Golden State.

    NEW YORK KNICKS

    Received: Valar Moe Harkless, 2020 first-round pick (via Clippers), 2020 second-round pick (via Detroit)

    Sent: Marcus Morris, Sr.

    Grade: B-

    We’ll end the adjudication with everyone’s favorite punching bag. To be clear: I’m not down on spinning Marcus Morris — their leading scorer this season, sadly — into some draft assets, including a late first which was burning a hole in the Clippers’ pockets. That’s a smart deal! What brings their grade down is not doing the exact same thing with any veteran not nailed down. Even with team options for next season, Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis might not have had a ton of trade value, but some (other) foolish front office might have at least given them something. Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock almost certainly could have netted useful assets (everyone needs shooting, right?), and a smart GM would even have kicked the tires on getting off all that Julius Randle money.

    Was it wise for James Dolan — famous last words, I know — to tip over the managerial apple cart two days before the deadline? Perhaps axing Steve Mills was the impetus for the Morris trade, but did the lack of structure at the top also scuttle additional deals which may have been out there? Hard to know, but as always under the reign of Czar Straight Shot, it’s one step forwards, two steps back.

    Others Receiving Grades:

    Houston Rockets: B+

    Memphis Grizzlies: B

    Atlanta Hawks: B

    Denver Nuggets: B+

    Detroit Pistons: D-

    Cleveland Cavaliers: C-

    Sacramento Kings: D- (KANGZ!!)

    Top Photo Credit: David Berding/USA TODAY Sports

  • Breaking Down The Four-Team Mega-Trade

    Breaking Down The Four-Team Mega-Trade

    A heretofore quiet trade season was busted wide open late Tuesday night with the announcement of a four-team, twelve-player blockbuster between the Rockets, Hawks, Nuggets, and Timberwolves. The headliners of the trade were Robert Covington (headed to Houston) and Clint Capela (on his way to Atlanta), but here is the full, somewhat confusing recap of what each team is receiving:

    • Houston Gets: Robert Covington, Jordan Bell
    • Atlanta Gets: Clint Capela, Nene
    • Denver Gets: Keita Bates-Diop, Gerald Green, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, Houston’s 2020 first-round pick
    • Minnesota Gets: Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, Brooklyn’s 2020 first-round pick (via Atlanta)

    A lot to unpack here, in terms of both the actual assets swapped and the teams’ motivations for doing so. Let’s start at the top, with the team pushing all its chips to the center of the table:

    Houston Rockets: Once upon a time in 2015, Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr made the audacious move of swapping his starting center for Andre Iguodala in a playoff series, pushing Draymond Green to the 5 and unlocking the Death Lineup. The Warriors would go on to win the first championship of their dynastic run, thus validating and codifying the small-ball revolution which had been nibbling around the edges of relevance until that point. [Apologies to Erik Spoelstra and Chris Bosh, but that’s not quite the same thing.] By effectively swapping Capela and a first for Covington, Houston GM Daryl Morey is betting he can take the evolution of pace-and-space to its logical conclusion by mothballing the center position entirely. The move taxes the math to its absolute breaking point, with the assumption being even more spacing and switchability will make up for the loss of size, rebounding, interior defense, and rim-running Capela provided.

    It seems crazy at first blush — especially considering the types of big men they could come across in playoff series against teams like the Lakers, Nuggets, or Jazz — but there is a certain internal logic. Capela is most effective as the roll man in the PnR, but the isolation brilliance of James Harden (and to a lesser extent, Russell Westbrook) has made this skill set less critical to their offensive ecosystem over time. [Capela has remained the most frequent recipient of Harden’s assists, and to his credit, has developed into an active cutter from the dunker spot this season.] The vertical spacing he creates on the lob will be missed — perhaps they are hoping this void can be filled by Isaiah Hartenstein, the newly acquired Bell, the desiccated remains of Tyson Chandler, or maybe someone who isn’t yet on the roster — but they are betting the addition of another shooter, and the vacuum created in the lane by this five-out look, will more than offset what is lost. [The new deployment could have shades of Milwaukee’s offense from last season, only with Harden playing the Giannis role as the hub. It’s a similar idea, though it didn’t feel as weird or icky when the Bucks did it, primarily because they still kept two seven-footers on the floor and lost virtually nothing at either end. They don’t call him The Freak for nothing.]

    Houston’s “Tuckwagon” units (with P.J. Tucker as the nominal center) have had some success, and adding Covington to those groups will actually render them a bit bigger and more switch-y. A presumed closing lineup of Harden/Westbrook/Gordon/Covington/Tucker will be a nightmare to guard, and the upgrade from Danuel House/Ben McLemore/Austin Rivers to RoCo defensively could make things less leaky. Even still, lineups featuring the foursome of Harden/Westbrook/Gordon/Tucker are -15.3 points per 100 possessions in an admittedly small sample of 166 minutes this season, and most of the Rockets’ big-minute configurations included Capela, so there’s no guarantee of the new look being a clean fit.

    For one, Covington has the reputation as a knockdown outside shooter, but the reality is he kind of, well, isn’t. He’s a career 35.8% shooter from deep on a healthy diet of attempts, but he’s down to 34.6% this season. Most of his attempts are of the catch-and-shoot variety, so it’s not as though his percentages are being dragged down by having to create off the dribble. League-average outside shooting isn’t terrible, of course, but if he’s stealing minutes from either of House (37.8% from three) or McLemore (38.4%), and not just Capela, then it’s conceivable RoCo actually brings down the team’s collective shooting ability in certain lineups rather than enhancing it. [Not to bring up old shit, but a team who once endured an 0-for-27 stretch in a Conference Finals Game Seven loss might be sensitive to such things.] His ability to make life at least a little difficult for the LeBrons and Kawhis of the world probably outweighs these concerns in the long run, and his contract remains a gem (Houston will owe him $12.1M and $13M over the next two seasons beyond this one), so even as this is a definite gamble, it is also a calculated one.

    When assessing why the Rockets would be gung-ho about dumping Capela, one needn’t look much further than owner Tilman Fertitta’s wallet. He appears to have no appetite whatsoever for paying the luxury tax, and this deal should cut costs enough to get Houston below the line. However things work out for this weirdo roster, it will come to be seen as a referendum on the limits of the analytics movement and the value of non-shooting bigs in the marketplace going forward. It is about those things to a degree, but we shouldn’t overlook how, as with most things, the decision to make this “bold” move was mainly about a billionaire’s bottom line.

    Atlanta Hawks: Capela will go from catching lobs from veteran flamethrower Harden to first-time All-Star Trae Young in Atlanta. Some pundits have expressed concern that Capela’s “timeline” doesn’t fit with the young core of the Hawks, but I find this criticism overblown. Capela is only twenty-five, and is on a perfectly reasonable (and clearly movable) contract which should encompass his absolute prime. [He has three years and about $56 million remaining on his deal after this season.] At some point you just need good players and adults in the room, and GM Travis Schlenk got both of those things with Capela, and at a fairly minimal cost. They take on long-term money in turning Evan Turner’s expiring contract into Capela, but they were slated to have a metric shit-ton of cap space this summer anyway, so no huge loss of flexibility. Sure, a rebuilding team may not want to be in the business of giving away first-round picks, but what are the odds they were going to strike gold in the 15-to-16 range on someone as good as Capela in a draft widely viewed as being weak?

    The Hawks also get Nene’s mummified corpse in the deal, and he will presumably be waived. Because time is a flat circle, his inclusion in the deal hearkens back to when a young, knuckleheaded Wizards team traded for Nene in 2012. His acquisition (along with the subtraction of JaVale McGee and Nick Young) immediately brought a professional presence to the locker room, as Capela may now be asked to do for Atlanta.

    The trade feels like a win for the Hawks, but it does raise the question of the future of John Collins. League insiders have expressed doubts about whether or not Atlanta will want to ink the Wake Forest product to a monster extension when he becomes eligible this summer, particularly after his 25-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug program earlier this year. When the rubber meets the road, I suspect they’ll make a competitive offer, because 22-year-olds who can put up a nightly 20-and-10 on 56/36/80 shooting don’t grow on trees. The ability to space the floor means they can run him alongside Capela, even if Collins has proven most effective as a bouncy pick-and-roll partner for Young. How the Capela/Collins pairing jells, and how much head coach Lloyd Pierce decides to stagger the two big men over the remainder of this season, will be interesting subplots to monitor.

    This is a better Hawks team than it was before the trade. The addition of a legitimate rim protector gives them a chance to be slightly less of a defensive dumpster fire. Sure, cashing in a first-round pick is a little dicey, but to get a premium asset on a rock solid long-term contract? You make that deal.

    Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets’ portion of the trade feels like a stepping stone to something (perhaps) bigger, but it’s hard to knock the value. They picked up a first-round pick for jettisoning three guys who they basically weren’t using anyway, two of whom will be restricted free agents to whom they presumably don’t want to commit big money. Vanderbilt has some potential as an energy big, but he’s still too far away for a title contender with no rotation minutes to give him.

    Beyond the pick, the return is a mixed bag. Green is likely out for the year and will almost certainly be waived. Noah Vonleh is salary flotsam. He isn’t going to take minutes from Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, or Michael Porter, Jr. Keita Bates-Diop (a guy I notably said last week could use more minutes) and Shabazz Napier are rotation-quality players, but whose minutes are they taking? Denver didn’t have court time for Beasley or Hernangomez on the wing, so why would KBD be different? Hopefully a change of scenery will launch his career in the way I laid out, but I’m not sure this is the exact change he needed. Napier has proven he can produce when given opportunities, but with Jamal Murray and Monte Morris ahead of him on the depth chart, he may be reduced to mop-up duty, unless he gets re-routed elsewhere.

    Speaking of, it’s possible this deal was the undercard for whatever they do on Thursday, but finding a workable trade which actually improves their team is going to be a challenge. Porter is probably untouchable short of an offer which begins with a top-25 player in the league. However, the combination of Gary Harris’s contract (a shade under $40M remaining over the next two years), Napier, and a couple firsts (perhaps including the one they just picked up from Houston for essentially facilitating this deal) could get them in the neighborhood of a difference-making player. With the amount of theoretical window this roster still has ahead of it, GM Tim Connelly may be hesitant to do anything with too much of a win-now odor to it. In the meantime, collecting real assets in exchange for ones you won’t miss long-term is a winning strategy.

    Minnesota Timberwolves: I get why all the other teams did this trade. It’s not necessarily a home run for any of them, but the respective rationales all make sense. I don’t know if I feel the same about Minnesota’s end of the deal. All of the chatter leading up to it indicated Minnesota was still aggressively pursuing D’Angelo Russell from Golden State, but the Warriors didn’t think the offer was sufficient. From a human psychology standpoint, maybe the Wolves felt like the bro at the bar who got turned down by the hot girl right before last call, and then had to scramble to save face by taking home the sloppy girl who’d been spilling drinks and yelling “Fuck men!” for the last hour. Due to the somewhat barren seller market, it’s fair to conclude Covington has become a bit overrated in this process (as discussed earlier), but even so: why was he burning a hole in the Wolves’ pocket? He’s a solid, versatile player on a team-friendly contract, and it really doesn’t seem like they maximized their return for such a good asset. Are they rebuilding now? If so, how does Karl-Anthony Towns feel about this course of action? [Update: they are, and not great, Bob.]

    Look, it’s not all bad, so long as what comes next logically follows. Turner has an $18.6M expiring contract, so letting him walk after the season will give them some cap relief. What matters is how they use it. I advocated for a rebuilding team to trade for Beasley and/or Hernangomez, using the right to match in restricted free agency as a de facto free agency signing. Cool. But again, what’s unclear is why RoCo had to be the centerpiece of such a deal. Even inasmuch as Beasley had become a forgotten man in Denver, with the dearth of quality free agents coming up this summer, he figures to draw quite a bit of interest from teams with cap space. Perhaps his acquisition by Minny throws everyone off the scent to a degree (as one suspects they’ll protect their investment by matching any offer sheet), but if not, to how much did the Wolves just pot-commit themselves? Will Beasley get a bigger offer than what Covington is already making? I don’t know, but I’m just saying they may not have bought themselves quite as much flexibility as they think.

    I like taking a flier on Vanderbilt, and a steady diet of minutes could get Juancho back on track. Additionally, rumors are GM Gersson Rosas is still engaging Golden State on the possibility of a D’Angelo Russell-for-Andrew Wiggins (plus picks) swap. It seems far-fetched because I don’t know why the Warriors would want to do such a thing, unless deep down, in their light-years-ahead hearts, they truly think they can bring the best out of the former no. 1 pick. Maybe I’m a cynic, but it feels unlikely. In any case, the Wolves moved their most desirable trade asset, and they don’t appear to be all that much better off for it.

    Stay tuned for more trade deadline analysis once the dust settles. As always, thanks for reading!

    Top Photo Credit: CBSsports.com

  • The Richaun Holmes All-Stars

    The Richaun Holmes All-Stars

    It’s difficult to set to the task of writing about “regular” basketball again, given the tragic events of Sunday in which Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna, and seven others perished in a helicopter crash. Everyone in the basketball community is still in mourning, and in no way is this column meant to be dismissive of or disrespectful towards the grieving process. But if the players — who feel the loss more acutely than nearly anyone — have to “play their way through it,” then those of us who cover those players can buck up and do the same. It’s corny to say “it’s what he would have wanted,” but we’re talking about a guy who made a movie literally called Dear Basketball, so it’s probably not far off the truth. I’m not going to pretend I have the skills to make the segue into this column anything other than incredibly awkward, so I’ll just lean into it instead. Let’s get started.

    The NBA is the ultimate meritocracy. At any given time, there are only 450-470 roster spots to be had (including two-way players), and thousands upon thousands of qualified players who want them. Within that overall group, there is a subset of about 300 players who are garnering consistent minutes during the regular season. Playing time is the coin of the realm, and every one of those minutes has to be earned, especially for players who aren’t top draft picks or don’t come with a significant pedigree. Young guys have to “pay their dues” and “take their lumps,” or whatever other cliche you want to deploy as code for “you aren’t good enough yet to play over the other dudes we already have.”

    Coaches generally do a good job of knowing their personnel and adjusting rotations to give everyone the amount of court time they need and deserve. Sometimes, though, the vagaries of roster construction and other mitigating factors render a deserving player underutilized. In a league blessed with so much talent, there are bound to be guys whose roles are not yet commensurate with their abilities. Their production and potential scream for more playing time, but the reality hasn’t caught up yet.

    These are the Richaun Holmes All-Stars.

    The team’s namesake should be familiar to anyone who regularly visits this space. Holmes is a 26-year-old big man out of Bowling Green who was drafted with the 37th overall pick in 2015. In his first four seasons in the league (three with Philly and one with Phoenix), he played in 226 games, starting twenty-four of them. He averaged 16.9 minutes per game over those four years, and his best statistical season came in 2016-17 with Philly, when he averaged 9.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game for a team in the final throes of The Process. The raw numbers didn’t paint him as anything special, but whenever I actually watched him play, something about him just popped. “The ball finds energy,” as the saying famously goes, and boy, did the ball ever seem to find Holmes. He has always been a vicious screen-setter, rebounder, rim-roller, dunker, and defensive irritant. It was impossible to forget he was on the court because he just kept making plays, all the time. All of his rate stats (per-36 minutes, per-100 possessions, and advanced metrics) should have a giant, neon sign next to them saying, “PUT THIS MAN ON THE DAMN COURT!”

    I’ve been pounding the table for him for some time, so it was disappointing when I heard he was signing with Sacramento over the summer, joining a jammed frontcourt with Marvin Bagley III, Nemanja Bjelica, Dewayne Dedmon, Harrison Barnes, and Harry Giles. I worried he would once again be lost in the shuffle, especially for an organization not exactly known for pristine roster management. Thankfully, I was wrong. Dedmon, the presumed starter, has failed to launch, and has even publicly requested a trade, for which he was fined $50,000. Bagley has been beset by injuries and has only played 13 games. Harry Giles still appears unable to handle major minutes, due to both precautions about his ever-fragile physical state and lack of development as a player.

    This left a void for Holmes to step into, and as always, he has made the most of his opportunity. While currently out of the lineup with a shoulder injury (he is expected back soon), Holmes has started 33 games out of the 37 he has played, averaging career highs nearly across the board (13.1/ 8.5/ 1.0 with 2.5 “stocks” on 66% shooting in 29.4 minutes per game). He is not the Kings’ “best” player (that would be either De’Aaron Fox or Buddy Hield), but it could be argued he has been their most important player this season. [To wit: Sacramento is 3-7 over the current ten game stretch Holmes has missed, and fading quickly in the rock fight for the 8th seed in the West.] He leads the team in PER, Win Shares, Win Shares/48 minutes, and Net Rating. His per-minute stats are as good or better than in his previous stops. And the perennially bumbling Kings fell ass-backwards into one of the best contract values in the league. [Holmes will make only $5 million next year in his age-27 season.] Richaun Holmes is the player he’s always been; he’s just getting the chance to showcase it now.

    So who are the other role players around the league who just need the opportunity to pop? Let’s meet the squad.

    STARTERS

    • C: Ivica Zubac, LA Clippers
    • F: Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies
    • G/F: Malik Beasley, Denver Nuggets
    • G: Jalen Brunson, Dallas Mavericks
    • G: De’Anthony Melton, Memphis Grizzlies

    RESERVES

    • C: Daniel Gafford, Chicago Bulls
    • C: Tony Bradley, Utah Jazz
    • F/C: Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors
    • F: Juancho Hernangomez, Denver Nuggets
    • F: Christian Wood, Detroit Pistons
    • F: Keita Bates-Diop, Minnesota Timberwolves
    • G: Lonnie Walker IV, San Antonio Spurs

    Ivica Zubac is the nominal starting center for the 33-14 Clippers, but he averages only the ninth-most minutes on the team, at 17.6 per night. The leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year, Montrezl Harrell, gets the lion’s share of the minutes at the five, in part because he’s been tremendously productive, but also because the league has trended away from “traditional” big men such as Zubac. It’s true, not every matchup is for the 22-year-old Bosnian. He is effective at scoring on the interior, rebounding, and banging with traditional centers, but when the game spaces out, he struggles with switches in the pick-and-roll and with bigs who venture away from the paint. He can’t reliably share the court with Harrell because of the offensive issues inherent in having two big men who don’t space the floor, so he’s left to basically pick up Harrell’s scraps.

    Thing is, he’s really good at it! The numbers all paint him as an elite role player: Zubac leads the league in Offensive Rebound Rate (15.2%); averages a robust 16.6 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per-36 minutes; is shooting 59.1% from the field (largely on attempts in the restricted area, but hey, at least he’s making them); is not a liability at the free throw line (75.3% career); and sports a 21.0 PER, .222 Win Shares/48 minutes, and a 3.0 Box Plus/Minus. [For the non-analytics crowd, those are all really good.] The defensive metrics portray him as well above-average (2.4 Defensive BPM and a 104 individual Defensive Rating), and the eye test does nothing to contradict any of it. The Clippers are 2.0 points per 100 possessions better with Zubac on the floor than off it — though 592 of Zubac’s 827 minutes have been shared with Kawhi Leonard, so a grain of Board Man-brand salt is in order here — and he just always seems to be in the right place to use his size and deft hands to make plays around the hoop.

    No modern team is ever going to build around a guy like Zubac, but it certainly appears he is capable of doing more than his current set of roles and responsibilities require. A good comp for him as far as trajectory might be someone like Jonas Valanciunas. Another dinosaur in the modern game, Jonas has nonetheless carved out a role as a starter and 25-ish minute per night guy in Toronto and now Memphis. The 27-year-old Lithuanian has the advantage of being able to play alongside or staggered with young proto-unicorn Jaren Jackson, Jr., so perhaps Zubac will have to achieve his professional destiny paired with a frontcourt partner who is a better fit than Harrell.

    Recent reports suggest the Clips are in search of “dependable size” in the trade market, but it’s unclear what they think they’ll find out there that’s enough of an upgrade over Zubac to justify giving up real assets. In addition, his contract absolutely rocks for a young dude who is still likely to get significantly better (L.A. has a team option for $7.5 million in 2022-23, which is an eternity away in NBA time). The grass isn’t always greener, even if L.A. is in the win-nowest of win-now modes. Don’t Zu-botch it, Clippers. [OK, I’ll show myself out.]

    I’ve written quite a bit in this space already about Brandon Clarke, so we won’t spend too long on him today. The Grizzlies are well aware they got a steal by plucking Clarke with the 21st pick in the 2019 draft (even including a draft-night trade with OKC to move up and get him), so his inclusion on this list is more about how slowly Memphis is bringing him along (only 21.6 minutes per game thus far) rather than him being some sort of hidden gem. The Grizz have overachieved with the troika of Valanciunas, Jackson, and Jae Crowder mainly holding down the starting frontcourt spots, so there’s no rush, but who wants to be a patient sports fan? At some point — either later this year if Memphis’ playoff hopes fade, or next season — Clarke will inevitably be “freed,” and it is likely to be spectacular. He’s already putting up a 20.1/ 9.6/ 2.5 and 2.1 “stocks” per-36 minutes on 62/40/83 shooting splits, a 21.8 PER, and a +3.2 net rating as a rookie, and I see no reason to expect him to wilt under a heavier minutes load. Clarke looks to be the perfect third option alongside JJJ and Ja Morant, and the Grizzlies are sitting on a nascent powerhouse.

    The presence of Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez on the RHAS is a function of the minutes crunch on an uber-deep Denver team. The numbers are unsightly for both guys this year, which is the sort of thing that happens when your minutes are getting yanked around from night to night. The wing spots are crowded in Denver, with Will Barton, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Beasley, Hernangomez, and now PJ Dozier all competing for minutes. Beyond that, the list in the previous sentence doesn’t account for the need to get court time for ascendant star Michael Porter, Jr. MPJ has annexed the minutes of both Beasley and Juancho, and it very much looks like a Wally Pipp situation: since the calendar flipped, Porter is averaging a 21.0/ 10.7/ 2.1 per-36 minutes on 54/49/77 shooting and has a 124 Offensive Rating, without eating up a ton of possessions (21.4% Usage Rate).

    The Nuggets appear to have found their cornerstone on the wing, which means Beasley and Hernangomez, two useful swingmen, are now more or less expendable. Both players will be restricted free agents at season’s end and have been mentioned in a variety of trade rumors as the February 6th deadline approaches. Playoff-bound squads in need of wing depth — OKC, I’m looking in your direction — could likely acquire one or both at a limited cost, as could a non-marquee or rebuilding team looking to use the trade market as de facto free agency. [Since they are both RFA’s, the team acquiring them would have the right to match any offer sheet either guy signs over the summer.] If I were a GM, I would certainly be putting in calls about Beasley. He has shown flashes of real two-way potential when given a sufficient opportunity, and probably won’t cost an arm and a leg to re-sign over the summer amid what should be a tepid free agency market.

    I had Jalen Brunson pegged as a guy due for a mini-leap this season on a Dallas team awash in solid role players but in need of high-end production beyond Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. I wasn’t entirely wrong, as the per-minute and advanced metrics paint him as an improved player from his rookie campaign. He just isn’t getting the run needed to be a true impact guy (16.9 MPG, down from 21.8 last season). Brunson is an old school, Mark Jackson-like point guard: a heady distributor and respectable-enough shooter who is at his best when he can use his burly frame to burrow into the paint and generate a look. He’s a smart, low-mistake player, which is enough to get rotation minutes, but doesn’t necessarily distinguish him from veteran teammates Delon Wright and J.J. Barea.

    Brunson fits well into the melange of solid pros on Dallas’ roster, but watching him, I always get the sense he is capable of more. It’s tough to think of many situations around the league where he could immediately step into a prominent role because the point guard position is so deep at the moment, but places like Philly (Villanova connection!), Detroit, or Minnesota could make some sense. [To be clear, I don’t suspect Dallas is going to be much of a player in this year’s trade market; just spitballing some locations where his role might expand.]

    Source: Mike DiNovo – USA TODAY Sports

    We already talked about Memphis a bit, but De’Anthony Melton has been a real spark plug in the Grizzlies’ scintillating run of late (12-3 in their last fifteen games). The early part of Melton’s career has been tumultuous — he was suspended for his sophomore season at USC as part of the widespread NCAA corruption scandal, then was traded in each of his first two NBA summers — but appears to have found a home in Memphis. His minutes have gradually ticked up as the season has progressed, and he has become a vital cog in the exciting young core discussed earlier.

    Melton is a top-shelf defensive pest, and the team is consistently better when he’s on the floor (+9.5 points per 100 possessions on-court, -5.3 when he’s off). The per-minute stats are sterling: since December 1st, the second-year man is averaging 16.6/ 7.8/ 6.2 per-36, and if you can get that sort of production out of a 6-2 shooting guard without sacrificing anything on defense, it would be foolish to put it on mothballs. His destiny may be as a high-end glue guy, but on a team which has already found its cornerstones, he is an invaluable resource. [All this for a guy who was the 46th overall draft pick, and has already been an afterthought in trades involving Ryan Anderson, Brandon Knight, and Josh Jackson. The moral of the story, as always: no one knows anything. Especially not Phoenix.]

    The Bulls’ Daniel Gafford is a deep cut, but he’s a guy I immediately liked as soon as I saw him play in Summer League. He has NBA size and length, sure hands, nimble feet, and solid defensive instincts. He’s been sidelined for the last eight games with a dislocated right thumb, but is expected back this week. Gafford will be returning to a frontcourt now missing starters Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter, Jr., so there is an opportunity for him to step into the void and cement a rotation spot going forward. He doesn’t factor in as a major part of Chicago’s future plans given their commitment to Markkanen and Carter, but he has the potential to blossom into a solid role player. His contract is non-guaranteed for ’21-’22 and ’22-’23, so some enterprising GM could potentially nab himself a low-cost, flexible asset with upside if he properly engages the Bulls’ notoriously, umm, “unsteady” leadership.

    Like Zubac and Gafford, Tony Bradley is another young, rock-solid “traditional” center who simply hasn’t had the opportunity to establish himself as the sort of consistent presence his numbers and the eye test suggest he could be. Playing the same position as Rudy Gobert in Utah is never going to be a path to big minutes, but to his credit, the third-year big man out of UNC has mostly overtaken “Easy” Ed Davis as the Stifle Tower’s primary backup, while providing a reasonable facsimile of the All-NBA center’s production. His +/- numbers are ugly as a result of Utah’s bench being mostly disastrous overall, but Bradley has done his best to keep them afloat in the non-Rudy minutes. He just turned twenty-two this month, so also like Zubac and Gafford, the upside remains significant. Whatever his ceiling is, however, it likely won’t be reached with the Jazz.

    I covered Chris Boucher in my Christmas column, and everything I said a month ago still applies. His minutes have trended down a hair as Toronto has approached full health — though Marc Gasol could be set to miss additional time with another hamstring injury — and he finds himself in a similar logjam for playing time as with Beasley and Hernangomez in Denver. If you’re sensing a theme here, you are onto something: the NBA is stocked with far more active, able-bodied young big men than it can provide roles for in the pace-and-space era. Whether this supply and demand imbalance represents a new market inefficiency or simply the new normal remains to be seen, but the next Richaun Holmes may have to be even better than the original in order to get noticed.

    On a related note: Detroit’s Christian Wood! Blake Griffin’s presumably season-ending knee injury has cracked the window open for the athletic 24-year-old (20.3 MPG in January), but he remains behind veteran Markieff “trust me, I’m not as much of a misogynist as my twin brother” Morris and highly-touted rookie Sekou Doumbouya in the power forward pecking order. Again, the per-36 minute numbers sparkle: 21.0/ 11.0/ 1.5 and 2.5 “stocks” on 58/37/73 shooting splits. His defense remains uneven, but the team flourishes with him on the floor (net rating of +10.4 points per 100 possessions). He can space the floor alongside Andre Drummond or act as the sole big man and primary rim-runner, the sort of versatility a number of teams should covet.

    As with Melton, it has been a circuitous path for Wood to find his place in the league. It looks like he has learned and matured from his early experiences, and can now hopefully settle into the “productive veteran” phase of his career. As Detroit seemingly prepares to pull the rip cord on the current roster, Wood may be a guy they see as a building block (along with Doumbouya and Luke Kennard) to whatever the next iteration of their team is.

    Keita Bates-Diop remains part hunch, part passion project for me at this point. KBD was a late bloomer at Ohio State, garnering a Second Team All-America nod his senior year after averaging 19.8/ 8.7/ 1.6 in 33 minutes a game. I understand how age factors into draft stock. The math mostly checks out. With that said, it still seemed crazy to me that a guy with prototypical size for a wing (6-8, 230 pounds with a reported 7-3 wingspan) and a track record of elite production at the highest level of college basketball would fall all the way to 48th in the 2018 draft. He spent the majority of his rookie season shuttling back and forth from the G League, playing only 30 games and 503 total minutes for the Wolves in 2018-19. Bates-Diop has already exceeded both totals this season, but is still only 10th in minutes for a Wolves’ team headed to the bottom of the West with a quickness. [Minnesota is 5-24 since the start of December, including two discrete ten-plus game losing streaks, one of which is active after somehow blowing a 27-point lead on Monday in a loss to the Kings. Their 4-1 start and the way-too-early “KAT for MVP” talk seems like a looooooong time ago.]

    Robert Covington continues to sit ahead of KBD on the depth chart as a better version of the same archetype (rangy, 3-and-D tweener forward). It’s unclear whether GM Gersson Rosas will elect to punt on the season and trade Covington at the deadline, as has been widely speculated. If so, a path to more minutes could open up for Bates-Diop on an openly tanking team, though even that would be complicated by the team’s large financial and draft commitments to Andrew Wiggins, Jarrett Culver, and Josh Okogie.

    Such is the challenge for a second-round pick who comes into the league at almost twenty-three: unlike younger prospects with more of a pedigree, you’re only going to get so many chances to prove you can contribute. If any of those opportunities slip, the league will quickly pivot to a younger version of you. I like Bates-Diop’s game, so I remain hopeful he won’t get swept away in this vicious cycle of roster churn. His contract is non-guaranteed for next season, so the clock is clearly ticking, though it could also be a chance for another team to buy low with a “prove it” deal if Minny decides it has seen enough.

    Last but not least, we come to San Antonio’s skyscraper-haired guard, Lonnie Walker IV. The Miami product was drafted 18th overall in the 2018 draft (which is already shaping up to be an all-timer, by the way), but his rookie year was DOA. Walker battled injuries and frequent trips to the G League, appearing in only 17 games for the big team. He wasn’t particularly good in those limited minutes, so the expectations were muted coming into this year. Then Walker destroyed the Summer League, displaying explosive athleticism and shot creation ability, and reminding everyone why he was such an intriguing prospect in the first place. He’s carried some of that momentum over to the regular season, though it has been in fits and starts. He erupted for 28 points in a win over the Rockets in December, relentlessly attacking the basket:

    [Most fans will remember this as the game where the refs somehow disallowed James Harden’s made dunk, but we’re “glass half-full” around here: it’s the Lonnie Walker Game.]

    Walker will have a baseline level of success purely based on his ability to get downhill, but he still has a long way to go in honing his craft. He doesn’t seem to have earned Pop’s trust yet, particularly on defense, which explains why he’s still only getting 12.7 minutes a night. To maximize his considerable potential, he’s going to need to play through some young player mistakes, which makes his fit within the Spurs’ culture a bit curious. They are still competing to make the playoffs for the zillionth year in a row and the depth chart ahead of Walker is littered with veterans, so his opportunities may remain limited for the foreseeable future. The Spurs get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing their players, so it’s safe to say they’ll eventually find the proper balance and bring out the legit NBA player inside Walker.

    Top Photo Credit: NBCsports.com

  • Picking The 2020 All-Stars

    Picking The 2020 All-Stars

    THE DEBATE OVER NBA ALL-STAR ROSTERS is invariably a silly one. An inordinate amount of time, energy, and resources is spent trying to whittle down the list to just twelve deserving candidates in each conference, and people get all in their feelings when one of “their guys” is snubbed. Analytics vs. eye test arguments kick into overdrive within the media, even as fans are busy giddily casting votes for joke candidates. [This will be the only mention of Messrs. Caruso and Fall in this column, in case you’re wondering.] And when it’s all said and done, the 24 selections go about the business of playing a defense-optional exhibition even hardcore fans don’t particularly care about. It is a laughably dumb exercise.

    With that said, the selections do matter, even if only for the sake of posterity. There are both tangible and intangible financial incentives for making the team. Perhaps more importantly, when we begin to look at star players in a historical sense, All-Star nods are a big part of their legacies. It’s literally one of the first things we point to when retrospectively examining a player’s career and where he stood within the hierarchy of the league. So we should take the process seriously, even if it is all fundamentally unserious in the grand scheme of things.

    First, some housekeeping. The final rosters will end up being selected, pick-up style, by the two “Captains” (the leading vote-getter from each conference, currently slated to be Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James for the second straight year). The pool of players, however, is determined by a blended fan/media/player vote for the starters, and a coaches’ vote for the reserves. Twelve players are selected from each conference, with the starters being made up of three frontcourt and two backcourt players (no “center” designation anymore), and the reserves consisting of two backcourt, three frontcourt, and two “wild cards.” The fan vote — which accounts for 50% of the blended vote for starters — ended on Monday, and the ten starters will be officially announced on Thursday night, but here is where the voting stands as of now:

    Even if the final fan vote doesn’t change much, the media and players will still have their say, so beyond the guys who basically can’t — and shouldn’t — be caught (LeBron, Davis, Kawhi, Luka, Harden, and Giannis), there is still some potential fluidity. Let’s take a quick spin through the starters before getting to the more nebulous process of picking reserves.

    WEST STARTERS

    • FC: LeBron James, LA Lakers
    • FC: Anthony Davis, LA Lakers
    • FC: Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
    • BC: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
    • BC: James Harden, Houston Rockets

    Not much intrigue here, especially given the state of the fan voting. A case could be made for Nikola Jokic over Kawhi — Jokic has played an additional nine games and 262 minutes relative to the Finals MVP — but it’s not an overwhelming one, and the hay already appears to be in the barn anyway. The other four spots are unimpeachable in every respect. Let’s move on.

    EAST STARTERS

    • FC: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
    • FC: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
    • FC: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
    • BC: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
    • BC: Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics

    There we go — conflict! Pascal Siakam currently leads Butler by about 400,000 votes, and he has now returned from injury. If we’re looking at it on the merits, however, Butler should be the choice. Siakam has the narrative on his side (reigning Most Improved Player becomes “the man” for the defending champs after Kawhi’s departure), and both guys are certain to make the roster anyway, but just for the sake of argument:

    Butler has the six extra games and roughly 200 more minutes. Siakam has most of the counting stats and percentages on his side, but the advanced metrics favor Jimmy and it isn’t close. Their respective teams have nearly identical records, and both squads are significantly better with their leading man on the floor as opposed to on the bench. [This delta is larger for Butler than Siakam, though it’s tough to definitively glean much from such a figure.] There’s no “wrong” answer here, but when it’s this much of a toss-up, I give the nod to the guy with the larger body of work.

    The East guards are, frankly, a mess. Let’s get Kyrie Irving out of the way right off the bat. He’s still second in the fan voting, but he clearly should not be an All-Star. He’s played in only fifteen games, during which the Nets are 5-10. [They are 13-14 without him in the lineup.] I get it, fans love watching the dude cook, but GTFOH. It would be borderline criminal for him to get a spot — especially a starting one — over any number of the more deserving candidates we’re about to discuss.

    Hopefully, the media and players will do the right thing and vault Kemba over Kyrie (no symbolism there) and into the starting lineup. Walker’s counting stats are naturally down a tick from last season after joining a team featuring other competent NBA players, but he’s still a natural choice. He’s playing more efficiently by nearly any metric, his teammates adore him to the point it’s almost unsettling, and get this — they’re winning games! The other spot certainly looks as though it will go to Trae Young, but I’m going to buck the numbers and go with my gut. All the media hand-wringing over Young being a stat chaser on a bad team is a bit much, to the point some folks don’t want him on the team at all. That’s just silly. Regardless of context, 29/5/9 on on 45/37/84 shooting are All-Star numbers, even if his defense is laughably bad. I could see not wanting to reward him with a starting spot, though the fans obviously disagree. But he’s a lock to make the team in some fashion.

    I am a little uneasy about putting two Sixers in the starting five, given how periodically shaky they’ve been all season. But whether or not he ever attempts another 3-pointer, Ben Simmons is playing great basketball. He’s been absolutely dominant since Joel Embiid went down with that nasty-looking finger injury. Simmons is averaging 21/10/8 on 62% shooting since the calendar flipped to 2020, and his defense and motor have been incredible as well. [He leads the league in steals per game, and has taken over for Paul George as this season’s “dude who is in the top-10 of almost every one of those funky ‘Hustle’ stats on NBA.com.] We all spend so much time kvetching about this one thing he can’t (or won’t) do, we forget he is top-of-the-league elite at virtually every other skill on a basketball court. He’s a lock to make the team at least as a reserve, but the way he’s shown his chops as an alpha dog point-center during the last two weeks puts him over the top for me. [With Ben thriving in the “Diet Giannis” role, the debate about the Embiid/Simmons fit will crescendo dramatically once JoJo returns to the court, but let’s focus on one thing at a time.]

    WEST RESERVES

    • FC: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
    • FC: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
    • FC: Paul George, LA Clippers
    • BC: Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
    • BC: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
    • WC: Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans
    • WC: Chris Paul, Oklahoma City Thunder

    Notable Omissions: Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, Ja Morant, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeMar DeRozan

    The lead-pipe locks are Jokic, Gobert, Mitchell, and Lillard. It takes some serious mental gymnastics to not include those four, so there’s no need to spend much time dissecting their respective cases. Those last three spots could go a number of ways. I initially wrote down George as a no-brainer, but man, he’s missed a lot of games (18 and counting). If someone wanted to substitute Booker in that spot, I wouldn’t take umbrage with it. The Phoenix star has the superior case in terms of volume, but he also plays for a team with thirteen less wins than the Clippers, so it just depends how the coaches want to weigh the factors. [Thinking a professional basketball coach’s internal calculus will put a premium on wins doesn’t seem far-fetched.]

    Towns has put up scrumtrulescent numbers when he’s been on the court (26/11/4 on 50/41/81 shooting). Like George, he’s also only played 26 games. Unlike George, his team stinks. If this exercise is fundamentally about triangulating stats, team success, and availability, it’s tough to make a compelling case for a guy when only one of those three factors is a net-positive. Westbrook will get consideration because of his name and his counting stats, but there is no way he deserves a spot. He’s been a borderline train wreck for much of the season. The numbers look shiny at first glance, but when you dig into them — and, you know, watch the games — it gets gruesome, and quick. His defensive effort has waned, he still takes the same four or five atrocious shots per game, and his outside shooting would make Josh Smith blush (23.5% from three on 4.6 attempts per game).

    This is probably the last time for quite a while we’ll be able to keep Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the roster, but neither guy is quiiiite there yet. Don’t worry, youngbloods — your time is coming. DeRozan has had a nice stretch of play recently, but overall, meh. This leaves us with Ingram and Paul. Ingram has been a revelation in his first season with the Pelicans, vaulting into the thick of the Most Improved Player race and cementing his case as a first-time All-Star. I’ve been holding off in my mind on anointing him as such for as long as possible, particularly because the Pels started off the year so poorly. The slender Duke product has allayed even this concern, however, leading New Orleans to a 10-5 record since December 23rd.

    The stats scream All-Star: 25.5/ 6.6/ 4.3 on 47/39/85 shooting splits. [The improved free throw shooting is particularly impressive; he was a career 66.2% shooter from the stripe coming into the year.] The defensive end has been a bit of a struggle for him, as it has for the entire New Orleans roster (they rank 27th in the league), but this stems in part from Ingram playing mainly as an undersized PF. He gives up significant poundage to many of the guys he marks on a nightly basis, and the return of Zion Williamson to the lineup (17 straight points in the fourth quarter on Wednesday night!!) should allow Ingram to play more minutes at his preferred wing spot, assuming an Ingram/Zion/Favors frontcourt turns out to be tenable offensively.

    Paul is perhaps the most interesting case. The stats definitely favor Booker or Towns for the final spot, but it seems wrong not to reward someone for Oklahoma City’s surprising first half, and in terms of both his performance this season and his historical track record, CP3 is the natural candidate. All-Star nods aren’t intended to be Lifetime Achievement Awards (except in the case of Dirk and D-Wade last year), but with Paul’s uncertain future in OKC beyond this season — safe to say the rumors of him getting moved before the deadline can be put to rest now — and a Western Conference which will likely be even more loaded with talent next season (with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson presumably returning to health and Zion, SGA, and Ja all continuing their respective ascensions), this season could be the last chance for CP3 to nab his 10th All-Star berth. His scoring and assists are down a bit from peak Point God levels due to the bevy of guard talent OKC is deploying, but his ability to orchestrate the offense and play bigger than his size on defense — along with his newfound durability and otherworldly crunch-time numbers — make him a worthy selection.

    EAST RESERVES

    • FC: Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
    • FC: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
    • FC: Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers
    • BC: Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
    • BC: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
    • WC: Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
    • WC: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

    Notable Omissions: Kyle Lowry, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, Devonte’ Graham, Nikola Vucevic, Andre Drummond, Zach LaVine

    This group could go a lot of different directions, so don’t drag me if this turns out to be way off-base. Siakam is the only true lock (or Butler/Embiid, depending which two of those three end up starting), and I suspect Young will end up on the roster in one form or another. Middleton seems likely as well because the coaches will feel they have to reward Milwaukee’s dominance with at least two spots. [He’s also deserving, but so is everyone else on the list.]

    After that, it becomes very eye-of-the-beholder. The other frontcourt picks are fairly straightforward. Adebayo and Sabonis have both stepped into larger roles this season and flourished for semi-surprising contenders. Bam is basically a bigger, more athletic, higher-scoring version of Draymond Green, with an advanced floor game many did not see coming after his stint as a glorified rim-runner at Kentucky. Adebayo is averaging 15.8/ 10.5/ 4.6 on 59% shooting, and is legitimately in the mix as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate for a team on a 58-win pace. Sabonis has been just as good, if not better. He’s throwing up a 17.9/ 12.9/ 4.3 on 54% shooting, and he’s an even bigger +/- monster for an Indiana team about to get its best player (Victor Oladipo) back next week. [Some might prefer Malcolm Brogdon to be the Pacers’ representative, and it’s understandable. He’s been awesome as the engine of an offense which has overachieved in the absence of Oladipo. The debits for him are that he’s played nine less games than Sabonis, and his production has tailed off a bit after his blazing start. I’ll stick with Domas.]

    Since we already have Young on the roster, some might quibble with the inclusion of Beal as another “good stats/bad team” guy. He’s making the best of the dumpster fire of a roster in Washington, and they become a G League outfit whenever he hits the bench (-15.2 points per 100 possessions when Beal sits). Despite being among the worst defensive teams in NBA history (seriously), Beal has helped mold the Wiz into an entertaining disaster, currently sitting at 11th in Offensive Rating amid the dearth of talent surrounding him. Perhaps he already regrets the lucrative extension he signed with the Wizards this past offseason, but there’s only so much we can ding a guy for the incompetence of his colleagues.

    I gave the final spot to Jayson Tatum, but I wouldn’t say I feel great about it. Coaches will probably want to give a nod to a second Boston player (in addition to Kemba), and Tatum seems the obvious choice, until you actually start breaking it down. Both Tatum and Jaylen Brown have played like All-Stars, and if we’re only picking one, the answer is not exactly clear-cut:

    It’s dealer’s choice here, but I’ll go with Tatum because he’s played more games/minutes and bears a heavier Usage burden, even if his efficiency suffers a bit as a result. Apologies to Brown and Kyle Lowry, who are the toughest cuts on my East roster. [I won’t be shocked if either Lowry or Brogdon ends up getting the spot I have assigned to Beal. Remember: coaches love winning.]

    So those are my teams. Tune in Thursday night on TNT for the announcement of the captains and starters, and next Thursday (January 30th) for the reserves. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments, on Facebook, or Twitter. Happy All-Star Season!

  • Stuck In The Middle With You: Where Do The Feel-Good Thunder Go From Here?

    Stuck In The Middle With You: Where Do The Feel-Good Thunder Go From Here?

    THERE ARE NO TROPHIES FOR 13TH PLACE. In a 30-team league with twelve consensus “good” teams and fourteen lottery spots, it can be easy to view 13th-best as the worst-case scenario. For a franchise which was one of the most successful and promising of the prior decade, this positioning within the league hierarchy could be an even more bitter pill to swallow.

    So despite this descent into relative mediocrity, why does it feel like the Oklahoma City Thunder are sitting so pretty?

    The Sonics/Thunder franchise hasn’t won a championship since 1979, but paradoxically, its story over the last fifteen years is the story of the league itself. The bad faith annexation of the team from Seattle laid bare the stark realities of the NBA’s business model. As the machinations of the move were playing out, a team which had recently won 52 games began selling off its parts and becoming purposely terrible for more bites at the draft apple. It was The Process before The Process, and it worked better than anyone could have ever imagined. Over the course of three drafts, they plucked Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden, nabbing three future MVPs and a young core the likes of which the league had never seen. They won an average of 55 games over a seven-year stretch from 2010 to 2016 — extrapolating the lockout-shortened ’11-’12 season to a full eighty-two, naturally — going toe-to-toe with powerhouses in Los Angeles, Dallas, San Antonio, and eventually Golden State. The Thunder made four Conference Finals in that span, but only reached the NBA Finals once, where they of course lost to the fully-weaponized Heatles.

    As the decade progressed, they became an avatar for shrewd front office management, but also for promise unfulfilled and the sobering inability for a small market club to retain top talent in the player empowerment era. And as the 2010’s came to a close and the diaspora of superstars was complete — first Harden, then Durant, then Paul George, and finally franchise tent-pole Westbrook — it was easy for a cynic to shift his gaze from where they were in 2010 to the gaggle of wayward assets posing as a real basketball team they now possessed and think, “What the fuck happened?”

    But a funny thing happened on the way to OKC’s next full-scale rebuild: the team GM Sam Presti piece-mealed together is actually kinda good. A roster which was meant to serve as a jumping-off point to whatever’s next (and Vegas pegged at approximately 32 wins before the season) has proven to be one of the biggest surprises of the year. [Apologies to Miami, Toronto, and Dallas.] The Purgatory Thunder moved to 21-16 on Tuesday night with a thrilling, OT road win over free-falling Brooklyn to further solidify the seventh spot in the West (now 4.5 games clear of eighth-place San Antonio) and as the best team in the league outside of the consensus top-12 contenders. They are now on pace for 47 wins and a likely first-round exit. Prima facie, such a result might not look too dissimilar from the last three seasons, but the realities of how they’re getting there, and more importantly, where they go from here, couldn’t be more different.

    First, the on-court stuff. The second unit remains a major work in progress, but it turns out that doesn’t matter so much when you have five really good NBA players who can all share the floor at once. Sometimes-maligned head coach Billy Donovan has unlocked a cheat code by surrounding my beloved Dothraki son (Steven Adams) and a versatile scoring 4 (Danilo Gallinari) with a three-guard configuration of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and nominal reserve Dennis Schroder. [I wouldn’t go so far as to call Donovan “much-maligned.” That feels hyperbolic. He certainly has some maligners out there, but it’s not like they’re going around holding protests or burning him in effigy or anything. Anyhoo.] This five-man group has played 108 minutes together so far (small sample size alert!) and is a stratospheric +25.6 points per 100 possessions.

    Digging down further, the three-guard combo of Paul, SGA, and Schroder is +25.2 per 100 in a more robust 233 minutes of court time, so it appears this unconventional look is responsible for a lot of the success. [OKC’s top three 3-man combinations by net rating all feature Paul and Schroder. The next three after that feature Schroder and SGA. Suffice it to say, Dennis Schroder is going to be HEAVILY involved in the Sixth Man of the Year debate.] Each of the three brings a different element to the table, and they all have the length and/or smarts to compete at the defensive end. Combined with a do-everything scorer like Gallo and the garbage man of all garbage men in Adams, there is simply no weak point in the lineup to attack.

    Having an elite five will make them a tough out in the playoffs, but depth does matter as well. After those top five guys (plus backup center Nerlens Noel, who we’ll get to), the roster falls off a cliff, and fast. The fifth “starter” is swingman Terrance “Turd” Ferguson. He could certainly develop further — amazingly, he’s still only 21 years old — but as it stands right now, he is just not the sort of NBA player who should be averaging almost 27 minutes a night. If you squint, you can see the vague outline of an athletic, 3-and-D wing in Ferguson, except for the fact that he doesn’t shoot or defend particularly well (32.2% from deep on almost four tries a game and a 113 individual Defensive Rating). Rookie Darius Bazley is further along than originally thought (particularly on defense), but he isn’t ready for the bright lights yet, and has a looooong way to go on offense. Abdel Nader, Mike Muscala, Hamadou Diallo, and Deonte Burton are all varying shades of ‘meh.’

    The pleasant surprise has been Noel. After enduring myriad injuries, hyper-erratic play, and a contractual snafu early in his career, the 25-year-old Kentucky product is finally getting healthy (though he’s currently out with an ankle injury), becoming more mature, and looking like the elite defensive stopper he was projected to be out of college. He’s gradually reined in his spasmodic gambles and frequent brain farts, and what’s left is one of the most dominant defensive big men in basketball. [He’s averaging 5.1 steals + blocks per-36 minutes, and his Defensive BPM of 5.6 would lead the league if he met the minutes threshold.] On offense, Noel is still mostly a roller and dunker (almost 42% of his field goal attempts are dunks), but he’s effective in the role, and he hits his free throws (81% on 73 attempts). Noel will become a free agent again at season’s end, and could begin to make up for all that lost cash from a few years back.

    As a team, a major driver of their success has been productivity in close-and-late situations, with CP3 doing most of the heavy lifting. The Point God is 34 and has entered a different stage of his career, but he remains damn effective in his first season in OKC. His assists are down — in part because of the more democratic offense touched on earlier — but otherwise, his numbers look fairly similar to what we would consider a “standard” Paul season. [It’s been three full seasons since he was named to an All-Star team, but the buzz for him as a Western reserve is beginning to pick up steam. I’m not quite there yet, but if they keep playing so well for the next two weeks, it will be tough not to give anyone from this team the nod, and CP3’s the most likely candidate.] Above all, Paul has thrived in “clutch” situations (under five minutes in regulation/OT and the score within five points), shooting almost 55% and ranking among the league leaders in fourth quarter scoring. Against Brooklyn, he got to the spot he wanted (primarily the right elbow) almost effortlessly on every trip down and canned jumper after jumper to keep the Thunder close enough to force OT and steal a win.

    Left for dead after the sudden departures of George and Westbrook, the Thunder are instead the feel-good story of the season. They are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Paul is rejuvenated and having a vintage season as the league’s best crunch-time assassin. SGA, the top prize from the PG trade, looks the part of a future star. Schroder, Adams, and Gallinari are thriving within the proper roles. And on top of it all, Sam Presti has amassed an unprecedented war chest of draft picks, with a chance to end up with as many as FIFTEEN first-rounders between 2020 and 2026. A year ago, they were a dead-end also-ran with an untenable financial situation, and now, they are a fun, vibrant, juggernaut-in-waiting, the bee’s knees in the NBA cycle of contention.

    The future is now, and it’s a blast. But when you’re sitting on SGA, a bunch of monster contracts, and all the picks in the known universe, the future is also the future, and where Presti goes from here is what really matters. Despite the unexpected success, many fans (and the NBA Twitterati) still seem invested in the idea of blowing up this version of the roster with even more of an eye toward league domination at some indeterminate date. Paul has played well enough (and more importantly, stayed healthy enough) to perhaps make his albatross contract just the slightest bit movable, but now it’s reasonable to ask if the return — ostensibly, salary relief and even more picks — is worth disrupting the vibe. Yes, CP3 is owed another $85+ million over the next two seasons, and that’s scary for a guy with his combination of age, size, and injury history. At the same time, he’s a really good NBA player. While hoarding more draft lottery tickets is normally a good strategy to mitigate risk, at a certain point there are diminishing returns as those picks turn into actual humans (whether by draft or trade) who then require roster spots, money, minutes, and development. In team building, there are no “Get Out of Jail Free” cards. You just move to a better or worse cell block, depending on your choices.

    The same idea, to a lesser extent, goes for Gallinari and Schroder as well. Both contracts seemed exorbitant when they were signed (Gallo is in the final year of a 3-year/$65 million deal with the Clippers and Schroder is in Year 3 of a 4-year/$70 million contract he signed with the Hawks), but now could be enticing to contenders looking to add valuable pieces around the margins. And OKC could likely get a decent return for either guy, but again, at some point, is it better just to have good players? Sure, they could lose Gallo for nothing over the summer, but the cap landscape this year is pretty grim. Presti might be in position to either re-sign Gallinari using his Bird Rights, or to extract a sign-and-trade from a capped-out team. Either outcome might be better than taking a deadline deal just to take one, and without making the current team worse in the process.

    The flip side of this is perhaps more interesting: what if the Thunder want to be BUYERS at the deadline? They have Andre Roberson’s expiring contract ($10.7M) to help match salaries, Bazley as a young asset with upside, and all of the aforementioned picks. If they really wanted to, they could get aggressive. We don’t know yet if any truly big names are going to shake loose before the deadline (Aldridge? Love? Simmons?? KAT???), but if it happens, no one this side of New Orleans is in better position to jump into the fray.

    Should Presti decide he wants to keep the current core intact while also chasing something bigger than the 7-seed — remember, a course of action which would have seemed insane three months ago but is now totally reasonable — the obvious targets would be upgrades on those Ferguson/Nader/Diallo wing minutes. Robert Covington makes a ton of sense for a slew of teams, but OKC could trump nearly any offer if they so chose. Reggie Bullock could probably be had from the Knicks for a song. Thaddeus Young is a proven role player, but he has struggled with his offense and his fit on the Bulls. Chicago might be happy to get a mulligan on his contract. Malik Beasley is set to be a restricted free agent and could see his role usurped by Michael Porter, Jr in Denver, so he may be available at a discount. Memphis has suddenly won six of nine and is locked in a battle for the 8-seed in the West, but if OKC comes knocking with a semi-juicy future asset for either Andre Iguodala or Jae Crowder, the Grizz would be foolish not to hear them out. Bogdan Bogdanovic could be pried away from the baffling Kings, though it’s unclear if Presti would have much interest in shelling out for Double Bogey in restricted free agency this summer. Point is, if OKC thinks they can climb up to the Denver/Houston/Utah/Dallas tier right away, they have plenty of ammo (and targets) to make incremental change, or even go big-game hunting.

    Is this all too much knob-slobbing for the 13th-best team in the league? Perhaps. Are we foolish for investing all this emotional energy in a team with two injury-prone stars, a 180-pound face of the franchise who can barely buy a beer, and the GM who thought it was prudent to trade away James Harden? Maybe. But history repeats itself, and even as the past fifteen years continually hurled wild bullshit at this franchise (much of its own making, much not), it kept coming out the other side with compelling, competitive teams and innovative solutions to new problems. If anyone can navigate this promising but uncertain future, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder. No matter what, we know it’ll be fun watching them try.

    Top Photo Credit: The Athletic

  • NBA Stocking Stuffers

    NBA Stocking Stuffers

    CHRISTMAS COMES THIS TIME EACH YEAR. In addition to being perhaps the single dumbest lyric in any holiday song, it also serves as a reminder that the “unofficial” kick-off to the NBA regular season is upon us. And while family, gifts, food, spirits, and Jesus are all well and good, is there truly anything better than celebrating with thirteen straight hours of NBA basketball? [Don’t answer that.]

    While the big, shiny gifts under the hoops Christmas tree are well-known to most fans — Giannis vs. Philly’s gargantuan front line, Harden gunning for 50+, LeBron and AD vs. Kawhi and PG — I like to take this opportunity to highlight the tiny accents and special little treats that will round out your holiday viewing experience. Here’s a fun thing or two to watch for in each game:

    BOSTON CELTICS AT TORONTO RAPTORS, NOON ET, ESPN

    The Champs, Forever Plugging Holes: Toronto’s spirited title defense has been one of the amazing stories of the early season. The Raps are sitting at 21-8, third in the East, with Offensive/Defensive Ratings of 11th and 4th. All of this sounds pretty par for the course for a team coming off a championship, until you factor in all the ways bad luck has attempted to kneecap this team. Kawhi Leonard and Uncle Dennis decamped for L.A. over the summer, as you may have heard. The opening stretch of this season has been littered with injuries, with mainstays Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Serge Ibaka missing a combined 26 games. And just as those guys were getting healthy and reintegrated into the rotation, the champs suffered another wave of maladies. Key rotation players Marc Gasol and Norman Powell (in the midst of the best stretch of his career) are both out indefinitely. Worst of all, newly-minted superstar and max contract player Pascal Siakam is also going to miss an extended stretch with a groin injury.

    The M.A.S.H. unit in Toronto takes some of the luster off this otherwise juicy matchup, but the silver lining is how it will highlight all of the creative ways head coach Nick Nurse and President of Basketball Operations Masai Ujiri have found to plug the holes and keep rolling. They continue to pull unheralded guys off the scrap heap and turn them into valuable contributors. Last season, it was Powell and VanVleet, and this year, it’s been Chris Boucher and Terence Davis.

    Boucher’s numbers don’t pop off the screen (5.7 PPG and 4.1 RPG in 12 minutes a night), and he’s so painfully skinny it looks like a strong breeze might snap him in half. But then you watch him in action, and the Oregon product just keeps making winning plays. His Go-Go Gadget arms make him a frightening deterrent at the rim, as well as a menace to unsuspecting three-point shooters. He’s averaging 2.3 blocks per-36 minutes, down from a small sample size craziness of 5.3 last season. The analytics paint him as a borderline elite defensive presence (101 individual Defensive Rating and a 1.7 Defensive BPM), and the team has a +8.0 net rating with him on the court (vs. +5.8 when he’s on the bench). Opponents shoot only 54.1% within five feet of the rim with Boucher as the primary defender, a better figure than noted rim protectors such as Mitchell Robinson, Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen, and teammate Gasol. He was absolutely everywhere in Toronto’s epic comeback win over Dallas on Sunday, putting up a 21-and-7 with 4 blocks (and a +24) in only 24 minutes:

    Boucher functions primarily as a rim-runner on offense, but he is beginning to diversify his game. He’s attempted 39 threes thus far in ’19-’20, canning them at a semi-respectable 31% rate. Ibaka is likely to continue starting in Gasol’s absence, but with more games like Sunday, it’s going to be damn near impossible for Nick Nurse to keep the 26-year-old Boucher off the floor.

    Boucher was a deep cut for sure, but he wasn’t a complete unknown. After playing for some high-end teams at Oregon, he was the G League MVP and Defensive Player of the Year last season, while also appearing in 28 games for the Raptors (and getting himself a big, shiny ring to show for it). The rise of Davis has been a very different animal. The 22-year-old shooting guard had a solid four-year career at Ole Miss, and he was on the draft radar for a number of teams after lighting up the Portsmouth Invitational, the G League Elite camp, and acing the combine. However, teams interested in him wanted to make him a two-way player, and Davis refused these entreaties. He instead went undrafted and signed a deal with Denver for a shot in Summer League. After one dominant performance in Vegas, the Raptors offered Davis a guaranteed contract. His bet on himself paid off.

    Yet again, the Raptors appear to have conjured up an NBA rotation player out of thin air. His role has been limited thus far (15.8 minutes a game), but Davis is making the most out of it, with a line of 6.4/ 2.8/ 1.9 on outstanding 47/42/96 shooting splits. He’s quickly adapted to his role as an efficient 3-and-D wing who can also provide some supplemental playmaking juice when needed. His minutes have bounced around some, but with the injury to Powell, Davis may have an opportunity to move up the depth chart and perhaps stay there. The skill set is evident:

    After the Raptors followed a similar blueprint in unearthing VanVleet (and in turning Siakam into one of the most out-of-nowhere superstars in history), it’s getting hard not to conclude that Ujiri and the Toronto brass have the magic touch when it comes to finding these diamonds in the rough. The short-handed Raps may have a tough time hanging with a really good Celtics team in the matinee on Wednesday, but it will be a treat to see these lesser-known guys get some shine in front of a national audience. Hark, the unheralded angels sing!

    MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, 2:30 PM ET, ABC

    Donte DiVincenzo Looks Like a Future Star: Draftniks in every sport make the same mistake year after year — they overlook obvious strengths to highlight perceived weaknesses. The NBA is no exception, and there is no shortage of examples. Portland chose Greg Oden over Kevin Durant in part because KD was so skinny and couldn’t bench press 185 pounds, even though he had just spent the season at Texas looking every bit like the historically great scorer he would eventually become. [By the way, he also weighs 240 pounds now.] The Pistons selected Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, AND Dwyane Wade for reasons that made no sense at the time and never will. Further down the board, we have ample evidence showing that if a team can nab a player with one elite, translatable skill, they should do it every time. Defense is one such skill.

    [Note: this is where I was getting ready to talk about the Sixers’ Matisse Thybulle, until he injured his knee on Saturday. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, so obviously he will not play on Christmas. Curses. Point is, he should never have gone as low as no. 20 in the draft because he might already be the best on-ball defender in the league, and could eventually be one of the best ever. He averages 4.6 “stocks” (steals + blocks) per-36 minutes, and the eye test and analytics both paint the picture of an elite stopper with the most active hands you’ll ever see. He’s a clunky offensive player, but he is shooting 46% from three (on only 67 attempts, but still), and if he makes strides on that side of the ball over the next 2-3 years, we’ll be talking about an indispensable player. OK, let’s move on.]

    The 6-4 DiVincenzo “jumped” to no. 17 in the 2018 draft on the strength of dominating the 2018 National Championship game off the bench to the tune of 31 points and being the named the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player. He was considered a good defensive prospect, and the fact he rose to the occasion on the biggest stage should have been a good sign. He was knocked for being a bench player (albeit on a loaded Villanova team) and for perhaps not having the upside of other top prospects after playing three solid-but-unspectacular seasons in college. Scouts and teams resist the urge to exaggerate the import of a single performance, no matter how impressive, but in this case, it was a sign of things to come for DiVincenzo.

    As a rookie, Donte played only 411 regular season minutes while fighting injuries and an ultra-deep rotation on a championship contender. He showed flashes here and there, but it was mostly a redshirt year. This season, with the departure of Malcolm Brogdon and injuries to Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe, DiVincenzo has gotten the opportunity for real rotation minutes, and he is running with it. Again, the counting stats don’t scream superstar: 8.5/ 4.5/ 2.2 on 43/34/78 shooting in 22 MPG. Everyone is ultimately a supporting player on the Giannis Rampage Tour, but the tape shows a guy who executes his role perfectly, filling in all the interstitial gaps and consistently making heady plays with anticipation and effort.

    He’s joined the starting lineup again in the absence of Bledsoe, and it’s crazy to say, but head coach Mike Budenholzer will have some decisions to make upon Bled’s return. The Bucks have been dominant, of course, but even more so with The Big Ragu in the lineup. Milwaukee is a staggering +19.1 points per 100 possessions with DiVincenzo on the floor, as opposed to a mere historically good +9.6 when he sits. [Yes, Giannis remains a big driver of these numbers. Donte and Giannis have shared the floor for 416 of DiVincenzo’s 617 total minutes, and the Bucks have a +22.7 net rating in those minutes.] Even if the analytics can be squishy, what we’re watching backs them up. He was a spark plug against Cleveland last week:

    And against the Lakers, he showed the instincts — and courage — to insert himself into the middle of an Anthony Davis alley-oop and knock it away:

    DiVincenzo is not yet the player Malcolm Brogdon is, neither in volume nor polish. But he is by no means a one-hit wonder. This is a real NBA player, and the Bucks got themselves yet another steal in the mid/late first round. If his game continues to blossom as his role expands, the Bucks could very well steamroll their way to a 70-win campaign.

    HOUSTON ROCKETS AT GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, 5 PM ET, ABC

    Will Ben McLemore Ever Attempt a Midrange Shot? This is probably the least interesting game of the day, given the complete implosion of Golden State’s season and the G League-caliber roster they run out on a nightly basis. Have some food during this one, spend time with your family if that’s your thing, and recharge for the heavyweight matchup to follow.

    If you are a masochist and must subject yourself to this torture, here’s one interesting subplot: Ben McLemore’s shot profile. At 26, it appeared the former lottery pick was on his way out of the league, but his career has been resurrected this season in Houston as an avatar for their threes-and-layups, analytics-heavy offense. McLemore is averaging a pedestrian 10.4/ 2.3/ 1.0 on 42/36/78 shooting. Nothing fascinating about that, right?

    Wrong. What’s crazy about his season is where his shots are coming from. McLemore takes 8.1 field goal attempts per night, and a whopping 6.9 of those shots are threes, for a gobsmacking 84.4% 3-point attempt rate. So this means, in almost 24 minutes a night, he is only taking 1.2 two-point attempts per game, but he is also making those shots at a league-leading 71.1% clip. How is this possible? Because they almost all come inside the restricted area. Per Basketball-Reference, 13.1% of his shots are at the rim, with only 2% of his attempts coming from the area between 3-10 feet, and a minuscule 0.4% from 10-16 feet. If you feel the need to add up all those percentages, they round up to an even 100%, which means McLemore has attempted exactly ZERO of his 244 field goal attempts from the area between 16 and 23 feet from the hoop. Will he attempt a midrange jumper on Christmas Day just for kicks or a as subtle troll? Will he attempt one all season? Am I the biggest nerd on the planet? [Actually, forget I asked. Let’s just get to a game that matters.]

    LA CLIPPERS “AT” LA LAKERS, 8 PM, ABC

    The Clippers’ Centers Are…A Strength? After the coup they pulled off this past summer, the Clippers came into the season sporting the deepest, most complete roster in the league. The only concerns were thought to be health and whether they would get enough rim protection and scoring from their rotation in the middle. The health question has been a mixed bag — Paul George is back and looks phenomenal, though Kawhi has had to pick his spots at times with lingering knee issues — but the big men have been a rousing success for the 22-10 Clippers.

    Montrezl Harrell has evolved from a Chris Paul trade throw-in to an elite per-minute bench contributor to an indispensable, borderline All-Star. The Louisville product has started only twice, but has played the most total minutes on the team, and is averaging a tidy 19.0/ 7.5/ 1.9 on 57% shooting in 29.2 MPG. He infects every part of the game with his snarling energy and rage-filled dunks (69 of them to date — nice). His pick-and-roll action with benchmate Lou Williams remains the most lethal secondary offense in the league, and he has even begun to show some basic playmaking competence in 4-on-3 situations. The biggest question was whether, at 6-8 if we’re being generous, he would be able to hold up in the middle defensively under a heavier minutes load. So far, no problems there. Even if he is benefiting from having elite defensive help on the perimeter, the 25-year-old is putting up the best season of his career for the league’s 7th-ranked defense.

    Harrell is the clear front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year, he may get All-Star consideration, and as an impending free agent, he is about to have the Brinks’ truck backed up to his house. There has been chatter that the front office believes they won’t be able to afford his next contract and could thus look to move him before the trade deadline, but that seems foolish to me. He is one of the four best players on a legit championship contender. It would be insane to punt on a potential title season because of financial considerations, particularly when your owner is one of the richest goddamn people on Earth. The Clippers’ front office has done nothing but hit home runs for the last two years, so I suspect they’ll see this situation for what it is.

    Their “traditional” center (and nominal starter) Ivica Zubac has also been effective in a lesser role. Zubac only plays 17 minutes a night (primarily because he rarely, if ever, shares the floor with Harrell), but on a per-minute basis, he’s basically Domantas Sabonis:

    Per 36 Minutes Table
    Player Age G MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS
    Domantas Sabonis23299987.414.6.5077.113.5.5273.54.8.73514.14.10.80.62.818.6
    Ivica Zubac22325436.811.5.5956.811.3.6023.85.1.75313.51.90.52.02.117.5
    Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 12/24/2019.

    All told, L.A.’s two-headed pivot monster is providing 27.3 points, 13.9 rebounds, 57.9% shooting, elite defense, and the stylistic versatility to handle any matchup. They’ll be challenged by the sheer size and athleticism of the LeBron/Davis/Howard/McGee frontcourt of the Lakers, but don’t expect them to be intimidated. It’s going to be a war.

    NEW ORLEANS PELICANS AT DENVER NUGGETS, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN

    Don’t Look Now, But Nikola Jokic is Hitting His Stride: After the slugfests of Boston/Toronto, Milwaukee/Philly, and the Battle for L.A., the nightcap is a fittingly low-stakes clash between two teams going in decidedly different directions. The Nuggets have won seven straight and clawed their way back to second in the West at 21-8 on the strength of good health and a cohesive defense currently ranked 2nd in the league. The Pelicans are 8-23 (“good” for 14th in the West) despite winning two of their last three, and will continue to be without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. On paper, there isn’t much intrigue to be had here, which might be for the best after ten straight hours of games.

    Yes, he is the team’s central figure, but the subplot to watch here is the re-emergence of Nikola Jokic after a sluggish start to the season. His Groundness (AKA The Joker, AKA Big Honey, AKA Big Chungus) has sprung to life in December, with averages of 20.1/ 9.6/ 8.1 on 53/40/88 shooting splits in 12 games this month. The starting five of Jokic/Paul Millsap/Will Barton/Gary Harris/Jamal Murray has been a +/- juggernaut (+13.3 points per 100 possessions in a monstrous 508-minute sample), and with Jokic getting in gear, the Nugs’ run of success could stretch well into the New Year.

    [One final note: should Pelicans’ rookie Nicolo Melli dunk or hit a three in this game, I will be PROFOUNDLY disappointed if play-by-play announcer Ryan Ruocco misses the opportunity to shout “MELLI KALIKIMAKA!!”]

    Merry Christmas and thanks for reading, everyone. Have a fun and safe holiday filled with good people, good food, and good ball!

    Top Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

  • First Trimester Superlatives

    First Trimester Superlatives

    IN CASE YOU HAVEN’T HEARD, Christmas is next week. And while many casual fans like to refer to Jesus’s possibly apocryphal birthday as the “unofficial” start to the NBA season, the truth is, the first third of the regular year is already under Santa’s belt. While the 27-ish game mark is a bit premature to be handing out awards, the league has taken shape enough to discuss some of the best and worst things we’ve seen thus far. Let’s get to it, starting with the guy who is quickly becoming the undisputed face of the league…

    BEST PLAYER: GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, MILWAUKEE BUCKS

    Apologies to: James Harden, LeBron James, Luka Doncic

    The top tier of superstars (and likely MVP candidates) is really special this year. Harden has improbably raised his scoring average from 36.1 PPG in ’18-’19 to a scarcely believable 38.9 this season. No player besides Wilt Chamberlain has ever averaged more over a full season. [The Big Dipper did so twice, though he averaged far more minutes per night, and the game was played at a dizzying pace back then, even compared to today’s uptempo style. FWIW, he did not win MVP in either of those seasons. Stay tuned for more about Wilt.] LeBron is leading the league in assists for the first time in his career, and along with Anthony Davis, has the Lakers out to the best record in the NBA, despite a supporting cast which has been predictably pseudo-crummy. And recent ankle injury aside, Doncic has been the league’s breakout superstar, leading the surprising Mavericks (hold that thought) to an 18-8 start and an Offensive Rating which would literally be the highest in NBA history. His statistical resume (29.3/ 9.6/ 8.9 on 48/33/80 shooting and a 32.0 PER) and style are drawing comparisons to everyone from Harden to LeBron to Larry Bird, and none of them feel hyperbolic. He is everything anyone could want from a young talent, and then some.

    But with all due respect, no one is single-handedly dominating the league like The Greek Freak. The reigning MVP has gone up another level this season, cranking out a 31.7/ 12.8/ 5.3 line on 56% shooting in a mere 31.2 minutes a night. His current 34.6 PER would be the highest in NBA history over a full season, and his Win Shares per 48 Minutes rank 10th all-time. [Every season above his belongs to Jordan, LeBron, Kareem, Wilt, or Steph, and only two of those seasons did not result in MVP awards — Wilt in ’64 and Kareem in ’73.] The only player in history to rival Antetokounmpo’s current averages in points/rebounds/assists over a full season is — you guessed it — Wilt Chamberlain. He averaged a bonkers 33.5/ 24.6/ 5.2 in ’65-’66, though again, it’s important to note he played an unfathomable 47.3 minutes a night and his Philly team ran at a breakneck pace of 122.8 possessions per 48 minutes. [The ’19-’20 Bucks lead the NBA with a pace of 105.1. And yes, for the record, Wilt did win MVP in that ’66 season.]

    Outside of the alien numbers, Giannis’s effect on the team has been even more noticeable. Despite losing superstar role player Malcolm Brogdon to Indiana over the summer, and missing All-Star sidekick Khris Middleton for seven games, the Bucks are cruising through the improved East. Milwaukee is 24-4 — a 70-win pace — even after a tough loss on Monday night to a Luka-less Mavs’ team ended their 18-game winning streak. [Hard to blame Giannis, who slapped up a 48/14/4 on 18-of-31 shooting in 34 minutes. The other four starters combined for only 23 points.] They lead the league (again) in Defensive Rating, with Giannis in the thick of the DPOY race as the league’s preeminent weakside eraser. Coach Mike Budenholzer notably deployed Giannis as the primary Kawhi Leonard stopper in the Bucks’ 119-91 shellacking of the Clippers back on December 6th, after taking flak for refusing to do so last season in the playoffs against Toronto.

    This is the most terrifying thing about Antetokounmpo: no matter how much he’s doing for the Bucks, you always know in the back of your mind that he has more in reserve AND is going to continue to improve. He’s already launching threes with far more confidence, and is up to a semi-respectable 32.1% from deep on 5.1 attempts per game (vs. career averages of 28.4% and 1.9 attempts).

    The only turd in the punch bowl is his free throw shooting. I mentioned this on Twitter the other day, but it bears repeating: Giannis’s Effective Field Goal Percentage (which accounts for the added value of a three-pointer) is sitting at .603, which is higher than his current Free Throw Percentage (.598). There are mitigating factors at play — such as the success rate of shots by teammates off passes from Giannis — but at a simplified level, defenses are better off fouling him than they are allowing him to attempt a field goal. If the scales continue to tip in this fashion, scamming-ass coaches (I’m looking in your direction, Pop) may start to view Hack-a-Freak as a viable defensive strategy. No one wants that, so here’s hoping Giannis (72.8% career) regains his confidence from the stripe.

    BEST ROOKIE: JA MORANT, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

    Apologies to: RJ Barrett, Jaxson Hayes, Rui Hachimura, PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle, Eric Paschall

    As is often the case, it’s been a mixed bag for the rookie class thus far. The continued (and indefinite) absence of Zion Williamson casts a pall over the entire group. At the same time, a few keepers have popped further down the draft board, most notably Clarke, Thybulle, and Paschall. And even beyond Zion, the top-10 has been moderately disappointing, with the lone true exception being Morant.

    The no. 2 overall pick’s star potential explodes off the screen with every cross-court dime, fearless rim attack, and dunked-upon big man. His off-the-dribble game calls to mind the heroics of future MVPs Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook before they became household names. The speed with which he scoots around and elevates over defenders can be breathtaking:

    Morant led college basketball in assists per game last season, and his elite playmaking has immediately translated. Scouts had concerns about his jumper, but so far, so good on that front as well: he’s shooting 43% from deep, albeit on only 51 attempts. The only thing that could short circuit Ja’s rise to stardom is himself. His willingness to hurl his body at the rack with reckless abandon is undeniably thrilling, but it’s also eventually going to get him killed. He has already taken several hard falls and has been dealing with back spasms as a result. He is paying lip service to the need to pick his spots and channel his aggressiveness properly, but it takes time and maturity to learn how to actually implement it, by which point the damage may already be done.

    In a sense, Ja and Zion represent two sides of the same dilemma. Both were gifted with otherworldly athleticism and the ability to harness it in exhilarating ways. And both need to strike a balance between deploying it and reigning it in — Ja because his lean body won’t stand up to the pounding, and Zion because his massively thicc frame puts too much pressure on his lower extremities upon impact. Morant at least has the benefit of the issue being behavioral rather than structural. It takes far more skill to be a fighter pilot than a kamikaze pilot, but the long-term outlook is also a lot better.

    BIGGEST SURPRISE: DALLAS MAVERICKS

    Apologies to: Toronto Raptors, Miami Heat

    The rise of Doncic has been spectacular, and his superstar turn is obviously the biggest factor in Dallas sitting third in the West at 18-8. However, his heroics tend to mask the fact that head coach Rick Carlisle has done a phenomenal job extracting maximum cohesion and productivity from the Mavs’ role players. Their deep bench has been the best second unit in the league, frequently expanding on the leads to which Doncic (and to a lesser extent, Kristaps Porzingis) has staked them. Plugging Tim Hardaway, Jr. into the starting lineup alongside Doncic, Porzingis, rim-runner Dwight Powell, and wing stopper Dorian Finney-Smith seems to be the chess move that allowed everything to fall into place on both units, and Dallas’ top-ranked offense keeps humming no matter who is on the floor.

    There are simply no bad minutes on their roster, and combining that with a transcendent superstar is a solid formula to win a ton of regular season games. The playoffs will likely expose some of their limitations, especially on defense, but even being in position to be exposed counts as a quantum leap forward in the post-Dirk era. The Mavs are going to be in contention for a really long time.

    BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

    Apologies to: Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

    On paper, it really looked like the Pelicans had something brewing. A core of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors, J.J. Redick, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Kenrich Williams, and E’Twaun Moore should have been able to do some things. Vegas thought so too, setting New Orleans’ over/under for wins at 38, a number I predicted was too low.

    It, umm…wasn’t. A team many thought would challenge for a playoff spot instead stews in the midst of a 13-game losing streak, and a putrescent 6-21 overall record. The loss of Zion took away the organizing principle on both ends, and the defense especially has cratered (a 114.3 Defensive Rating, 27th in the league). Being without Favors’ rim protection for fifteen games has not helped matters. The backcourt pairing of Holiday and Ball was supposed to be one of the elite defensive units in basketball, but Jrue has battled injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness, and Lonzo has been, for lack of a better word, bad. Reserves Moore, Nicolo Melli, Frank Jackson, and rookie Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all been at or below replacement level thus far. Jahlil Okafor is Jahlil Okafor.

    There are a few bright spots despite the morass. Even at 35, J.J. Redick continues to excel at all the things he always has. No. 8 overall pick Jaxson Hayes is ahead of schedule in his development and looks like he will be an impact big man at some point down the road. And Brandon Ingram has transformed from something like a distressed asset in L.A. to a borderline All-Star in New Orleans. The Duke product is averaging 24.9/ 7.1/ 3.6 on 48/40/84 shooting, and is going to get P-A-I-D in restricted free agency this summer.

    None of these silver linings make up for the execrable start, the lack of Zion, and the repeated embarrassments on national television, and the Pels have some tough choices to make about how they approach the remainder of the season. Zion’s recovery from knee surgery has progressed more slowly than expected, and there are beginning to be whispers New Orleans might just redshirt him for the year. With all the assets they acquired from the Lakers in the Anthony Davis trade, the Pelicans were positioned to be major buyers in the trade market if they so chose. Instead, head honcho David Griffin must now decide if it makes more sense to sell off all the veteran parts (Holiday, Favors, Redick, Moore) and enter into a deep rebuild around Zion, Ingram, Hayes, NAW, and every draft pick under the sun. Assuming Zion gets healthy at some point, the future remains bright in New Orleans, but life in the NBA sure did come at them fast.

    NBA.com

    GOOFIEST SUBPLOT: WINNING BROTHERS!

    Sports brothers are always fun, and this season, we’ve been blessed with two examples of the best variation on the theme: when brothers play on the same team. Brook and Robin Lopez have teamed up in Milwaukee, while Justin and Aaron Holiday joined forces in Indiana, with both teams reaping the chemistry rewards. The two squads are a combined 42-13, so it’s safe to conclude putting brothers together is the key to NBA success. [Aside: hands down, the best 5-man lineup any team has put on the floor all season is Indiana’s deployment of both Holiday brothers alongside T.J. Warren, T.J. Leaf, and T.J. McConnell on November 3rd. Three TJ’s over two Holidays — a full house!]

    For further proof of the efficacy of blood pairings, we need only look to the Morris twins. Marcus and Markieff played two full seasons together in Phoenix from 2013 to 2015. The Suns won 48 games in ’13-’14 and 39 in ’14-’15, and haven’t won more than 24 since. Coincidence? Now separated, their careers have mostly languished. Marcus burned the Spurs over the summer and instead chose the Knicks, who have as many power forwards this season as they do wins. I legitimately had to look up what team Markieff now plays for, and that rarely ever happens. [It’s the generally forgettable Pistons, owners of an 11-16 record as of this writing, in case you’re wondering.]

    Yes, I know Seth Curry is the counterpoint to this argument. His Mavs are off to the aforementioned great start, and his slightly more well-known brother is nowhere to be found. But maybe, just maybe, Golden State’s season wouldn’t have fallen apart so thoroughly had they figured out how to acquire Seth over the summer. We can’t prove the negative, so I’m just going to operate on the assumption the Dubs would still be atop the West in this alternate, all-brother universe.

    WORST GOOD TEAM: UTAH JAZZ

    Apologies to: Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets

    The good news: the Jazz are 6th in the West at 16-11, they have a positive point differential against a tough schedule, are winners of three in a row, and they might get two All-Stars in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.

    The bad news: for a team expected to compete for a top seed in the West, they have looked ROUGH at times. Over the first nine days of December, they got hammered by Toronto, Philly, the Lakers, and OKC, often resembling a bumbling lottery team more than a potential powerhouse.

    Free agent acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic has been mostly as-advertised (21/4/2 on 45/46/88 shooting), but Mike Conley has struggled mightily to integrate into Quin Snyder’s system, and he’s looked borderline washed on occasion. Outside of Joe Ingles, the bench is a disaster, and it increasingly appears Dante Exum is never going to happen. Defense has been Utah’s calling card over the last several seasons, but they’re sitting at a middle-of-the-pack 11th in Defensive Rating at the moment, and the offense (22nd) can’t make up the difference.

    More good news: we’ve been down this road before with the Jazz. They’ve struggled through sluggish starts in each of the last few seasons and then flipped the switch along with the calendar each time. Why this is a defining feature of this group is anyone’s guess, but there is enough evidence to suggest it’s not a fluke, so we ignore it at our peril. If they can stay healthy and unlock something like Memphis Conley along the way, Utah should be right in the mix for a top-4 seed in the West come April.

    BEST BAD TEAM: WASHINGTON WIZARDS

    Apologies to: Charlotte Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns

    Let’s be clear: there are certainly lottery teams who are objectively better than this cast of DC misfits. But for night-to-night absurdity and entertainment value, nobody beats the Wiz. [S/O to any people of a certain age reading this in the Tri-State area.] At 26 and newly well-heeled, Bradley Beal is probably one of the best fifteen players in the league, and would get a ton more national attention if he were playing in a less bleak situation. Guys who can go get 28/5/7 a night don’t grow on trees, even if he’s doing it out of necessity. I didn’t have much faith in Rui Hachimura as a prospect, but he looks the part of an actual NBA player, and could grow into more. Snagging Davis Bertans and Moe Wagner from desperate teams over the summer are the sorts of opportunistic moves former GM Ernie Grunfeld would have never in a million years thought to make, and both guys look like nice pieces moving forward. Bertans in particular has been an absolute sniper. The Latvian Laser is hitting 45.7% of his threes on 8.4 attempts per game, and if he isn’t invited to the Three-Point Shootout at All-Star Weekend, we riot. Thomas Bryant (yet another guy snatched off the Lakers’ scrap heap) was having a breakout season before going down with a stress fracture in his foot. Second-year wing Troy Brown, Jr. does some good things now and then and should stick in the league. Ish Smith and Isaiah Thomas are around, for some reason. I watched Ian Mahinmi confidently step into a top-of-the-key three the other night and nearly hurl it over the backboard, which was entertaining in a perverse sort of way.

    The crazy part is this collection of castoffs (plus Beal) somehow has the 4th-best offense in the league at the moment, and they play at the second-fastest pace. It makes no sense, but it’s strangely enthralling to watch. What truly makes the Wizards such a beautiful disaster, though, is their defense. I’ve been watching pro basketball my whole life, and have never seen a team put up so little resistance. The numbers nearly agree. Last season’s Cavaliers registered the worst Defensive Rating on record (117.6), but this year’s edition of the Wizards is only a tick less horrendous (117.4). There’s still plenty of time for them to get worse if they set their minds to it. Rare as they may be for an 8-17 team, in “clutch” situations (the last five minutes of a game where the margin is five points or less), Washington’s Defensive Rating skyrockets to an unfathomable one hundred forty-six. Think about it. That’s 1.46 points PER POSSESSION, with the game on the line. How is that possible? Most teams could play 3-on-5 and do better than that. Just mind-blowing incompetence.

    LET’S BRING THIS BEAST IN FOR A LANDING by switching gears and taking a way-too-early look at…

    FIRST TRIMESTER ALL-NBA TEAMS

    FIRST TEAM:

    • F: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
    • F: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
    • C: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
    • G: James Harden, Houston Rockets
    • G: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

    SECOND TEAM:

    • F: Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
    • F: Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
    • C: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
    • G: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
    • G: Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics

    THIRD TEAM:

    • F: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
    • F: Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers
    • C: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
    • G: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
    • G: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

    Barring significant injury, the First Team may as well be written in stone. In a vacuum, Kawhi is good enough to crack the top group, but he’s been oddly inefficient so far, and he’s likely to only play about 65 games. He’ll have to settle for Second Team, not that he gives a shit. It’s an odd crop of guards this year due to the absence of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Victor Oladipo, as well as Kyrie Irving being hampered by injury and his personality. A few others have a case for inclusion — Trae Young, Russell Westbrook, Donovan Mitchell, Malcolm Brogdon, Andrew Wiggins — but I feel pretty good with where we are. I can’t really craft a devil’s advocate argument for any forward outside of the six listed. [Jayson Tatum? Jaylen Brown? Brandon Ingram? Feels like a big drop-off.]

    There is some intrigue at center. AD is the natural First Team choice, but both Embiid and Jokic have struggled a bit relative to their usual lofty standards. A case could be made for a number of other big men, including Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis, and Clint Capela. If I had to replace one, I’d lean toward including Towns because his production is just so impressive, but it’s difficult to overlook how poorly Minnesota is playing right now (lost seven straight and eleven of fourteen). Even with the overall dip in offensive output from Embiid and Jokic, they are still anchoring elite defenses, and their teams are a combined 37-16, so it’s hard to ding them too much.

    That’s it for now. Don’t forget to tune in to TNT on Thursday night at 8 PM ET for the game of the season so far — Lakers vs. Bucks. Enjoy!

    Top Photo Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

  • Trade Targets Who Could Swing The 2019-20 Season

    Trade Targets Who Could Swing The 2019-20 Season

    THE NBA REGULAR SEASON ROCKETED PAST the one-quarter mark last week. It still seems early, but the standings are already taking shape enough to allow front offices to chart their personnel courses for the remainder of the year. This is a good thing, because we are approaching December 15th, one of the sneaky-important dates on the NBA calendar. Per the rules of the collective bargaining agreement, the 15th is the day when most of the free agents signed over the summer — approximately 40% of the league, as you may recall — become trade-eligible. [A handful of guys don’t become eligible until January 15th, but we’re not here to pore over CBA arcana, so let’s move on.] For all intents and purposes, it is the kickoff of the NBA trade season. In anticipation, today we’ll look at some impact players who could be on the move, and which teams might have interest in swinging a deal. Let’s get started.

    THE BIG NAME ALBATROSSES

    Chris Paul, Oklahoma City Thunder

    Contract: $38.5M (’19-’20), $41.4M (’20’-’21), $44.2M (’21-’22)

    Possible Destinations: Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks

    Ever since CP3 was banished to OKC in the Russell Westbrook blockbuster, there has been non-stop speculation about his possible re-routing to a team more aligned with his competitive timeline. Thunder GM Sam Presti has instead been content to stand pat and run Paul out there with the currently assembled mediocre roster (10-12 as of this writing; 16th/15th in Offensive/Defensive Rating), perhaps hoping to provide proof of concept for the future Hall of Famer’s continued trade value in spite of his millstone contract.

    The good news: Paul is still an excellent player! His assists are at a career-low rate, but he’s averaging 16.0/ 4.1/ 5.8 on healthy 45/37/89 shooting splits in 31 minutes per game. Best of all, he’s played in every game thus far, an encouraging sign for a guy who has missed 69 regular season games over the last three years. [I know. Nice.] His volume isn’t what it once was, and his shot profile has shifted as he’s aged — he hasn’t been a high-end rim attacker in many moons, but that part of his game has almost entirely disappeared over the last two years — but the eye test and the analytics still paint the picture of a very useful two-way player.

    The problem is two-fold: at 34 and with almost 38,000 combined minutes on his legs, this is about as useful as he’s likely to be; and holy hell, is that contract a nightmare. Is there any team out there prepared to up its risk profile (as his former GM Daryl Morey likes to say) enough to take on $44.2 million in salary two years from now for a 36-year-old, small point guard, even one as legendary as Paul? The team willing to take out such a mortgage would have to: 1) think it is one move from a title; 2) be willing to pay luxury tax for several years; and 3) have the kind of organizational culture in place to weather Paul’s notoriously demanding personality. Minnesota might have kicked the tires on a Paul-for-Wiggins swap over the summer, but with Wiggins suddenly starting to reward the Wolves for their considerable patience with him, that’s probably a non-starter now. The Bucks would have a tough time cobbling together matching contracts and assets for a trade without adding a bunch of long-term money in which Presti is unlikely to be interested, and Philly’s dilemma is similar.

    This leaves Miami, the team many analysts (myself included) pegged as the most logical destination way back in July. The Heat have burst out of the gate to a 17-6 start, perhaps cracking the door open for a win-now move. They have historically been willing to take big risks for big rewards, and the organization’s gritty, hard-charging ethos (as well as the star pairing with Jimmy Butler) seems like a snug fit. Lastly, they have the expiring (or near-expiring) contracts and young assets — especially Justise Winslow, who may prove expendable with Butler in the fold — to structure a deal Presti might find palatable. Is a trade likely? Probably not. Does Miami want to tinker with the chemistry it has unlocked on the current roster? Unclear. But if there is a deal to be swung for the aging legend, Pat Riley sure looks like the guy to consummate it.

    Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers

    Contract: $28.9M (’19-’20), $31.3M (’20-’21), $31.3M (’21-’22), $28.9M (’22-’23)

    Possible Destinations: Portland Trail Blazers, Miami Heat

    A similar story to Paul, though finding a trade partner may prove even more challenging. Love is also an over-30, oft-injured star with a bloated contract finding renewed success in a low-pressure environment. His deal is less onerous than that of Paul, especially with the declining salary in the final year. Problem is, there just aren’t a ton of teams looking for a ground-bound big man with a lengthy injury history who can’t credibly man both the 4 and 5 on defense, even one who offers consistent floor spacing like Love. In 2019, it’s tough to find an ecosystem where plugging in the things Love does well — which, don’t get me wrong, are numerous — doesn’t immediately create a new set of fatal roster flaws due to what he lacks.

    Despite the increasing likelihood of 2019-20 being a lost season, the best fit remains Portland. They could send either Zach Collins or Anfernee Simons as the principal asset, along with Hassan Whiteside’s expiring contract as salary filler, and then bank on a core four of Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic, and Love being enough to return to contention next season. They’d be paying luxury tax for the rest of eternity, but they already owe Dame $257 million guaranteed at this point, so what’s the difference? [Yes, the ownership situation remains in flux following the death of former owner Paul Allen, so there are some variables at play here, but let’s assume whoever controls the team going forward isn’t some Robert Sarver-level penny-pincher.]

    DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs

    Contract: $27.7M (’19-’20), $27.7M (’20-’21 — Player Option)

    Possible Destinations: Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies

    The shine sure has come off DeRozan’s star, and fast. Numbers-wise, he’s essentially the same player he’s been for much of his career: 21.7/ 5.7/ 4.8 on 51/36 (!)/81 shooting. He’s been named to four All-Star teams and two All-NBA teams. If DeRozan came along in an earlier era, we’d probably be talking about him as a potential Hall of Famer. Problem is, the game has changed around him. In the modern NBA, players who can score out of the midrange and the pick-and-roll can be valuable, but if they can’t also space the floor and defend their position, then the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

    On/off data and defensive ratings can be squishy, but after a while, it becomes hard to ignore what they’re saying. The Spurs are 9-14 and their defense is horrendous overall (23rd in Defensive Rating, unfathomable for a Popovich team), but DeMar is definitely not helping matters. The team has a -7.4 net rating when he is on the floor, a figure which jumps all the way up to +4.9 when he is on the bench. Sure, roster construction, rotations, matchups, yadda, yadda, yadda. I get it. But it isn’t just this year. DeRozan’s teams are consistently worse with him on the floor than they are with him off of it. He has a negative net on/off rating in every year of his career save one (2011-12 with Toronto), but it is most pronounced this season. No one would ever accuse DeRozan of being an empty stats All-Star because many of his teams have been winners (at least in the regular season), but it increasingly appears most of them were succeeding in spite of him.

    All this is to say, there probably aren’t any contending teams who would have much interest in acquiring him, leaving middle- and lower-tier franchises who could use some scoring punch and a flashy name to fill seats. The contract isn’t atrocious, even if one suspects he’ll pick up his player option for next season. He could act as a de facto free agency pickup for a small market team, but without the long-term downside. It’s been reported Orlando has had preliminary discussions with San Antonio about a deal, which makes some sense. Charlotte, Atlanta, or Memphis could similarly look to take the Spurs’ problem off their hands, and perhaps even extract some draft capital in the process. Perhaps San Antonio’s brain trust can hoodwink some unsuspecting front office into giving up an actual asset for the fallen star. If they can, they’ll be falling all over themselves to call that thing in to the league office.

    DIFFERENCE-MAKING RENTALS

    Andre Iguodala, Memphis Grizzlies

    Contract: $17.2M (’19-’20)

    Possible Destinations, LA Lakers, LA Clippers, Denver Nuggets

    The sharks have been circling Iguodala since the moment he was exiled to Memphis as collateral damage in the Kevin Durant/D’Angelo Russell sign-and-trade. Even at 35, his elite wing defense, savvy playmaking chops, and championship pedigree could provide a boost to any number of contenders. The Lakers are the presumed destination, though without any desirable trade assets to speak of, they are currently little more than spectators in the ongoing game of chicken between Iggy and Memphis over his status with the team. Iguodala has requested a buyout, but the Grizzlies have maintained they are committed to finding a trade partner. [Can’t really blame Memphis. Any asset they get in return is a bonus, and they’re nearly certain to get something for him.]

    The other juggernaut in L.A. is also rumored to be a suitor, but it’s fair to question whether sacrificing assets from such a seemingly complete roster is worth the somewhat redundant skill set Iguodala provides. [One could argue it makes sense for them to acquire him simply to keep him away from the Lakers, and it’s not without merit.] A reunion in Denver is also logical, especially after the Lakers spent last Tuesday night repeatedly bullying the Nuggets all over the floor in a 105-96 road win. In reality, any number of contenders could use what Iggy brings to the table. If the Grizz can’t find a suitable deal, then it becomes a question of whether saving a few million bucks in a buyout is worth being the feeder system for the Lakers. Again.

    Danilo Gallinari, Oklahoma City Thunder

    Contract: $22.6M (’19-’20)

    Possible Destinations: Portland Trail Blazers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Dallas Mavericks

    Much like CP3, Gallo is another quality player obtained in a blockbuster trade, and he would likely have more value to someone else than he does in OKC. The main difference is Gallinari’s age, skill set, and expiring contract make him eminently more movable than Paul. His numbers as a Thunder (?) are down a smidge from his career year with the Clippers last season, but he remains a versatile forward who can create offense in a variety of ways. [Feel free to insert the obligatory “when healthy” anywhere you like in the previous sentence.]

    Under different circumstances, Portland would be the ideal trade partner, but that ship may have sailed. Almost any of the contenders in the East could put together an appealing package, though Miami might make the most sense if they don’t want to go all-in on Gallo’s more well-compensated teammate. Bam Adebayo has proven to be such an elite defensive big that he could cover for Gallinari’s occasional deficiencies, and the offensive upgrade from those Kelly Olynyk/Meyers Leonard minutes would be massive. Dallas might have a tough time constructing a palatable deal, but The Rooster would immediately become the third-best player on the Mavs, as well as an elite second unit hub when Luka Doncic rests.

    The complication for OKC in dealing either Paul or Gallinari is they could conceivably become too flush with future draft picks. There are only fifteen roster spots to go around — seventeen including two-way players, but stay with me — and continually clogging them all up with young bucks (who may or may not contribute anything useful) blocks them from rostering, you know, actual NBA players who can help win games. [Boston nearly butted up against these same diminishing returns over the last few years.]

    Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers

    Contract: $18.5M (’19-’20)

    Possible Destinations: Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets

    Thompson has cooled off a bit since I included him in the Most Improved Player discussion a couple weeks back, but he is still having a career year and could draw the interest of several contenders. Teams may want to wait and see if Cleveland will buy out the remainder of his contract, but the Cavs would certainly prefer to get some sort of draft compensation if they can. Boston will be in the conversation for every available big man, and Thompson (along with a few other guys we’ll get to shortly) would do the job in shoring up the rotation in the middle and slotting the existing players into proper roles. [I like Daniel Theis, but he’s currently starting and playing about 22 minutes a night, which is a stretch for his skill set.] The Nuggets could use another strong interior player with some mobility to give them a prayer against the overwhelming offenses of the two L.A. squads.

    Houston’s defense has come around after some notable early struggles — never forget, they gave up 158 points in regulation to the Wizards — but with Nene injured as per usual and Tyson Chandler aggressively washed, the frontcourt pairing of Clint Capela and P.J. Tucker is in need of reinforcements. Houston is projected to be a luxury tax team, and making a deal work is nearly impossible without including Eric Gordon, who is owed a ton of long-term money Cleveland may be reluctant to add. The Rockets are likely stuck hoping for a buyout because Thompson would be a tremendous get for them.

    Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings

    Contract: $8.5M (’19-’20)

    Possible Destinations: Virtually anywhere

    When the Kings started 0-5, they instantly became one of the most logical trade season “sellers” in the league. With some questionably large contracts already on the books, and eventual massive extensions looming for De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, no team had more incentive to try to get off veteran money. That enthusiasm has dulled as Sacramento clawed its way back to 9-13, firmly in the race for the final two playoff spots in the West. [That sounds crazy, I know. But it’s true.] Even so, smart GMs around the league should be lighting up Vlade Divac’s phone in an attempt to trick the notoriously baffling Kings’ front office into a regrettable deal.

    We’ll get to the glut of big men momentarily, but the primary name teams should be poking around is Bogdanovic. Double Bogey has become a key piece for Sacramento in the absence of Fox, but with the generous extension they (belatedly) gave to Buddy Hield and the aforementioned one for Fox on the horizon, the Serbian sniper may be the financial odd man out in the Kings’ guard rotation. He’ll be a restricted free agent in July, so it would be advantageous for any non-destination franchise to acquire him now and take control of the RFA process, utilizing the trade as a proxy for free agency. Bogdanovic has proven himself worthy of a bigger role and a bigger contract. He’s 27 and in the prime of his career, averaging 18.9 points and 5.8 assists per-36 minutes. He’s not turnover-prone for a guy who has the ball in his hands quite a bit, and he spaces the floor effectively (37.1% from three on seven attempts per game). He’s no one’s idea of a great defender, but any number of teams could still use what he brings as a shooter and second-side playmaker.

    The Nuggets have the pieces to make a deal, and reuniting Double Bogey with Serbian national teammate Nikola Jokic is an idea I can one-thousand percent get behind. Among other contenders, he’d fit in seamlessly on the Sixers, Heat, and Mavs as well. But his market should not be limited just to teams making a playoff push. Bogdanovic represents a rare opportunity for even a rebuilding team to add a really good veteran wing in his prime to its collection of assets, and at a reasonable cost. Fox will still be out for a few more weeks (and may need to be reintegrated gradually upon his return), so the Kings could slow-play the market for Double Bogey. [Yes, I know this implies Vlade, Vivek, and Co. have some kind of discernible strategy, an assumption for which we don’t have a ton of evidence.] In any case, it would be extremely surprising to see him remain in Sacramento beyond the trade deadline.

    GOOD PLAYERS, BAD FITS

    Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

    Contract: $18M (’19-’20), $18M (’20-’21), $18M (’21-’22), $18M (’22-’23)

    Possible Destinations: Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, LA Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans

    It’s not accurate at all to say the Twin Towers combination of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis in Indiana isn’t working. The two bigs have a net rating of +5.3 points per 100 possessions in 317 minutes of shared court time, and after an 0-3 start, the Pacers have roared back to a 15-8 record even amid a rash of injuries and the continued absence of Victor Oladipo. [They’ve also had by far the league’s easiest schedule to this point, so there’s no guarantee the good times will keep rolling.] But the degree to which it has “worked” is mostly a function of the additional workload Sabonis has taken on and in spite of the decline of Turner. Domas is mostly the same per-minute monster he was last season, but with a full complement of minutes, he’s now in the All-Star conversation. In fairness, Turner missed eight games due to injury, but over the thirteen he has played, his point, rebound, and assist averages are all at their lowest since his rookie year. [Also, Indiana went 6-2 in the games Turner sat, although it wasn’t exactly a murderer’s row of opponents.] He remains an elite rim protector (2.5 blocks per game). On offense, however, he simply doesn’t have the fluidity or skill of Sabonis, and it has rendered him a glorified stretch-4, with 43% of his field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. [To his credit, he is hitting those shots at a 36.7% rate.] Again, it’s all working, but what is the opportunity cost? Is there a better use for that spot next to Sabonis, as well as the $18 million Turner will make this year (and the next three after it)?

    Turner is still only 23 years old. He has untapped potential as a unicorn-adjacent big man who can stretch the floor and protect the rim. In the right environment, his contract extension could even turn out to be a bargain. But at some point, Indiana will likely have to choose between Turner and Sabonis, and at least as of this moment, it would be insane not to choose Sabonis. Granted, it isn’t usually a wise move to sell low on a talented player. But of the six teams in the scrum at the top of the East, only the Pacers have the potential trump card of “our best player hasn’t even set foot on the floor for us yet.” The front office may be looking at the core of Oladipo, Sabonis, and Malcolm Brogdon and dreaming about what might be if they can just find a player (or players) who fits better alongside them than does Turner.

    Even if Indiana does want to jettison Turner, finding a workable deal could be tricky business. Boston is again the obvious destination. There were rumors before the season of either Turner or Sabonis being swapped for Jaylen Brown to even out both rosters. Brown has played so well, however, the Celtics probably have no interest in moving him, at least not without a metric shit-ton of sweeteners. [Also, the Twitterati would have a field day with the “yeah, because anytime you can re-create the team that stormed to a seventh-place finish at the FIBA World Cup, you have to do it” jokes.] Marcus Smart has an eminently tradeable contract, but he’s worth more to Boston than he is to Indiana. A third team might need to get involved to grease the skids. Also, these Eastern Conference rivals could be reluctant to strengthen each other, but there’s a deal to be made if both front offices are committed to it. If Toronto wants to mess with a good thing, they could look to flip some of their expiring money for a big man who fits better with the competitive timeline of the Siakam/Anunoby/VanVleet core. [A third team would likely be needed to make this happen as well.]

    Rebuilding teams could likewise attempt to snag a young asset with extended team control in exchange for a vet who won’t be around the next time they’re in contention anyway. The Pacers will probably maintain the status quo and see what they have once Oladipo returns, but rival GMs should be sniffing around anyway to see if there is a buy-low opportunity here.

    D’Angelo Russell, Golden State Warriors

    Contract: $27.3M (’19-’20), $28.6M (’20-’21), $30.0M (’21-’22), $31.4M (’22-’23)

    Possible Destinations: Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks

    The Warriors’ front office has said from Day One that they acquired Russell to play him, not just to collect an asset and lessen the sting of losing Kevin Durant. There’s even a chance they weren’t completely full of shit initially, but with the unfathomably schadenfreude-y manner in which their ’19-’20 season has descended into the seventh circle of hell, it would be shortsighted of them not to look for ways to turn the ill-fitting Russell into long-term assets to bolster the presumably intact core which will return next season. They’ll already have their own lottery pick (which, based on how things are going, is unlikely to end up lower than about sixth), and it would make sense to try to hoard additional first-rounders from lower-tier teams interested in taking on a young All-Star entering his prime.

    Speculation has followed both Minnesota and Phoenix, primarily because Russell has gone out of his way to tell the media how he wants to play with besties Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker. Minnesota has the contracts of Jeff Teague ($19M expiring) and Gorgui Dieng (who is still due an unbelievable $17.3M next season) to play with, though of course they would need to throw in sweeteners to make a deal. The Wolves probably don’t want to part with either Jarrett Culver or Josh Okogie, but if the opportunity presented itself to pair Russell with KAT and Andrew Wiggins — finally beginning to live up to his considerable potential — it would behoove them to move Heaven and Earth to make it a reality.

    Phoenix also has the contracts, young players, and picks to put together an appealing offer. The only roadblock is the 51 million guaranteed dollars they owe to Ricky Rubio, who despite his limitations, has at long last brought stability to the Suns’ perennially dire point guard situation. Perhaps they could find a third team to absorb Rubio, but that’s a big ask. The Knicks would make some sense, if only there were any reason to to think they have the organizational competence to construct a deal of that magnitude. Miami could offer long-term cap relief and/or Justise Winslow, but not much else.

    QUALITY ROLE PLAYERS WHO DESERVE BETTER

    J.J. Redick, New Orleans Pelicans

    Contract: $13.3M (’19-’20), $13.0M (’20-’21)

    Possible Destinations: Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, LA Lakers, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks

    Way back in the olden days of July, bringing in Redick and Derrick Favors — also a trade candidate — seemed like savvy moves for “adult in the room” veterans to complement the young core in New Orleans. Unfortunately, neither player has been able to do much to stop the implosion of the Pels’ season, as they currently sit 14th in the West at 6-17. The missing 285-pound freight train in the middle hasn’t helped matters, and the promise of Zion’s eventual return might cause New Orleans to hold onto their cards for a bit longer and see what they have at full strength. However, with no timetable for the ostensible franchise savior’s debut, it might behoove David Griffin to begin thinking about how to acquire assets to pair Zion with additional young stars going forward.

    Redick is still a top-tier floor spacer (46.5% from three on 7.2 attempts per game), but he isn’t going to get this roster anywhere, and he isn’t getting any younger. [He’s also never missed the playoffs in his NBA career, a streak which is now in obvious jeopardy.] Even at 35, any number of contenders would be thrilled to have his shooting, and his contract is right in the sweet spot for finding a workable deal. Milwaukee brought in Kyle Korver to fill the same role, but he appears to be on his last legs at 38 years old, and replacing some of Wes Matthews’ minutes would give them even more scoring punch. Dangling either Donte DiVincenzo or little-used D.J. Wilson (along with salary filler) could draw New Orleans’ interest.

    Philly is another one of Redick’s former employers who might welcome a reunion, though the logistics of a deal are trickier, assuming they don’t want to ship Josh Richardson out for the player he just replaced. As with a number of other available players, Denver could insert itself into any trade discussions it wants, but they may be content to let the current roster straighten things out. The Lakers have nothing else to give up the Pels would want, though they could offer up Kyle Kuzma and get a third team involved. Utah could finally punt on Dante Exum if Griffin were looking for a buy-low opportunity.

    Point is, there are a ton of sensible destinations for Redick, and the longer Zion remains out, the better the chances Griffin decides to pull the trigger on a deal. [Also, I already mentioned Favors, but if New Orleans does decide everything must go, Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, and — gasp — Lonzo Ball could all be on the block as well. I don’t think they’ll pull the ripcord that quickly, but just know it’s on the table.]

    Thaddeus Young, Chicago Bulls

    Contract: $12.9M (’19-’20), $13.5M (’20-’21), $14.2M (’21-’22 — partially guaranteed for $6M)

    Possible Destinations: Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets

    Staying with the theme of surprising free agent flops, Young has failed to launch in Chicago. He is playing and scoring the least amount since his rookie year in ’07-’08. Thad has played nearly 1,000 combined games (regular season plus playoffs), so his odometer is getting up there. Even so, at only 31 years old, he shouldn’t be washed (or even rinsed, as the kids say) just yet. He may not be the “adult in the room” the young Bulls needed, but his stout and versatile frontcourt defense could be very valuable to the second-tier contenders of the world in search of a body to throw at the Antetokounmpos and Leonards and LeBrons of the world. Plus, he probably wouldn’t cost a whole lot in terms of assets. He’s a little overpaid at this stage of his career, but with the partial guarantee on the third year, Young’s contract would remain movable next season if need be. Anyone in search of a winning, two-way veteran to be the seventh or eighth man could do a lot worse. [A rival GM might also do well to inquire about fellow free agent signee Tomas Satoransky, though one suspects that would be a tougher sell.]

    Richaun Holmes, Dewayne Dedmon, Harry Giles, Nemanja Bjelica, Sacramento Kings

    Contracts:

    • Holmes: $4.8M (’19-’20), $5.0M (’20-’21)
    • Dedmon: $13.3M (’19-’20), $13.3M (’20-’21), $13.3M (’21-’22)
    • Giles: $2.6M (’19-’20)
    • Bjelica: $6.8M (’19-’20), $7.1M (’20-’21 — non-guaranteed)

    Possible Destinations: Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers

    All the usual suspects needing to bolster their frontcourt depth should be looking to exploit Vlade Divac and the bizarre logjam he has created in Sacramento. The strong play of Holmes (told ya so) has allowed the Kings to weather the absence of Marvin Bagley III, but with the second-year big man set to return to the lineup this week, someone’s minutes are about to get squeezed. Giles is basically out of the rotation as it is, and could be had for a song. His health will always be a concern, but 21-year-old, former no. 1 overall high school prospects usually can’t be nabbed off the scrap heap, so there’s post-hype opportunity. Dedmon figured to be the guy to step into a big-minute role, but his outside shot didn’t travel with him from Atlanta, and Holmes has wrested control of the starting center spot from him by force. Bjelica has been lights-out from deep (42.6% on 4.3 attempts per game) and offers enough of a floor game to fill in the gaps.

    And then there’s Holmes. The 26-year-old hustle monster has perhaps played a little too well to be a trade candidate: 12.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in 29.0 minutes a game, a league-leading .672 Field Goal Percentage (and .694 True Shooting, also tops in the league), an elite .212 Win Shares per 48 Minutes, and a 136 individual Offensive Rating. As a team, the Kings are 12.5 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor rather than on the bench. As I’ve been telling anyone who will listen, the dude can play. It might be an overpay, but Boston could offer the top-6 protected pick (unprotected in 2021) they still have coming via Memphis, and Sacramento would have no choice but to accept on the spot. Mason Plumlee is one of the league’s best backup centers, and Denver would be banishing him to Siberia by bringing in Holmes, but damn, a Jokic/Holmes double-big look could be fierce. Playing in Houston next to Harden and Westbrook, he’d get more flushes than a toilet at Taco Bell.

    And on that note, we’re all done here. Happy trade season, everybody!

    Top Photo Credit: The Athletic

  • It’s Getting Better All The Time: Making Sense Of The Crowded Field For Most Improved Player

    It’s Getting Better All The Time: Making Sense Of The Crowded Field For Most Improved Player

    WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME AND ENERGY debating the meaning of the word “valuable” as it pertains to how we assess criteria for the Most Valuable Player award. How much of it is statistical dominance? How much is tied to team success? Other factors? I have my own rubric for making such determinations, but reasonable people can certainly disagree.

    In any case, figuring out what qualifies as “most valuable” in a given season is fraught with complexity and uncertainty. Now, imagine trying to make a similar assessment of overall player value not just in one season, but over two consecutive seasons, and then attempting to quantify the delta between the two. Complicating matters further, each player under consideration starts from a different baseline of experience and role within his team, so unlike the MVP award — where every candidate falls under the umbrella of “top of the league superstar” — it is also difficult to formulate a consistent, apples-to-apples means of comparison.

    This is why the Most Improved Player award is such a nebulous honor, and why the types of players who receive it vary so widely. How are we defining improvement? Is it tangible skill development? If so, how do we properly assess that for young players (especially ones of significant pedigree), who are supposed to advance along a particular trajectory as their careers blossom? How much do we ascribe to a larger opportunity or role on a team, not to mention the chicken-or-the-egg question of whether the opportunity was a direct result of the player improving or an unrelated personnel decision, or even random circumstance? An increased volume of production is obviously important, but it can’t be the sole variable because then we would essentially be rewarding players for getting to play more minutes and putting up the commensurate additional stats.

    No, there have to be more factors at play. Volume, role, efficiency, and narrative are all part of the calculus, which again, is why we see so many different types of winners. After breaking down past recipients of the award, I’ve narrowed it down to six main archetypes who tend to get the nod. Let’s define them, cite past examples, and then use them as the framework for this year’s wide field of candidates. Here we go:

    THE SIX TYPES OF MOST IMPROVED PLAYER AWARD WINNERS

    The “good to great” player. This is usually a young player who has already shown significant promise and improvement, and then makes THE LEAP into “Oh shit, this is one of the best guys we have” territory. In other words, when we get a newly minted superstar, he tends to win.

    Examples: Tracy McGrady (2000-01), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2016-17)

    The “old dog, new trick” player. This is the veteran role player whose skill set we think we know and understand, but suddenly uncorks a career year out of nowhere. Sometimes it presages a new level of play going forward; other times it’s an outlier.

    Examples: Jalen Rose (1999-00), Hedo Turkoglu (2007-08), Goran Dragic (2013-14)

    The young arrival. Typically a lottery pick in his first four years in the league, this is basically the poor man’s version of the “good to great” player. It’s a guy who is expected to be good and begins to pay off that expectation, though not necessarily to the same degree.

    Examples: Alvin Robertson (1985-86), Kevin Johnson (1988-89), Kevin Love (2010-11), Paul George (2012-13)

    The “started at the bottom now we here” surprise. Unheralded players, typically drafted in the late first or second round, who experience a meteoric rise to prominence, whether through an increased opportunity or a change in circumstances.

    Examples: Gilbert Arenas (2002-03), Monta Ellis (2006-07), Jimmy Butler (2014-15), Pascal Siakam (2018-19)

    The Situation Lottery player. These winners showed tangible improvement to their games, but the major change was the situation in which they found themselves and the expanded opportunity they were provided. Trades, better/different teammates, more minutes, injuries, and other factors beyond their control afforded a chance to shine.

    Examples: Dana Barros (1994-95), Jermaine O’Neal (2001-02), Boris Diaw (2005-06), Aaron Brooks (2009-10), CJ McCollum (2015-16)

    The post-hype breakout. A less frequent archetype, but an important one because of this year’s candidates. This is a highly drafted player who, for whatever reason, disappointed over the first few years of his career. Then, as hope of the player’s promise began to fade among fans and media, something changed and the player prospered.

    Example: Victor Oladipo (2017-18)

    On to this year’s candidates:

    Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

    Archetype: Good to Great

    2018-19 Stats: 31.9 MPG, 16.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 55/37/79 shooting, 18.7 PER, 20.8% Usage Rate, .175 Win Shares/48 minutes

    2019-20 Stats: 36.9 MPG, 25.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.1 APG, 47/36/82 shooting, 19.6 PER, 29.7% Usage Rate, .146 WS/48

    There has never been a two-time MIP winner, a good indicator of how rapid and how steep the reigning winner’s ascent has been. Siakam went from relatively anonymous role player in 2017-18 (7.5/ 4.5/ 2.0 in 20.7 MPG) to second-best player on a championship team in 2018-19 to a borderline MVP candidate this season. His efficiency has suffered a bit this year under a heavier offensive burden in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, but even so, I can’t remember any player who has shown this much improvement this quickly. Besides the continued uptick in volume, the biggest change in his game this year has been the addition of above-the-break and off-the-dribble threes. Last season, 97.5% of Siakam’s made threes were assisted, and 68.2% of his 3-point attempts came from the corners. This year, those figures are down to 66.7% and 26.5%, respectively. His per-game three-point attempts have more than doubled, the attempts are largely of a much more difficult variety, and yet his percentage is nearly identical.

    Spicy P is more involved on both ends of the pick-and-roll, and despite no longer employing arguably the best player on the planet, the Raptors are on pace for almost the exact same regular season record as they posted en route to a championship last year. If he and the team continue to produce at this level, while voters probably won’t be ready to reward Siakam with the MVP, back-to-back Most Improved awards could serve as a nice consolation.

    Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

    Archetype: Good to Great

    2018-19 Stats: 32.2 MPG, 21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.0 APG, 43/33/71 shooting, 19.6 PER, 30.5% Usage Rate, .101 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 34.3 MPG, 29.9 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 9.4 APG, 49/34/82 shooting, 32.4 PER (!!), 35.2% Usage Rate, .300 WS/48 (!!!)

    Well then. If the second-year wunderkind keeps up this current level of production, and the Mavs continue along their 50-win pace, then winning Most Improved Player may turn out to be just the appetizer preceding a possible MVP entree. While averaging a triple-double (or something close to it) has lost a bit of its luster as a result of Russell Westbrook’s semi-empty statistical binges over the last three years, witnessing a 20-year-old this far ahead of the curve is something truly special. There has simply never been a player this young and this good, and yes, that includes LeBron James. It’s difficult to be hyperbolic about Luka’s ascent, even intentionally. We’re watching a kid become not just a man, but a legend right in front of our eyes.

    There are only two arguments against Luka winning MIP. First, if voters are considering Doncic for MVP (and again, they should be), that may take him out of the running for Most Improved in their minds. Second, the weight of expectations drags him down a bit. Yes, he’s young and scary-good perhaps earlier than expected, but everyone knew he was good. [OK, maybe except Sacramento.] Fair or not, a guy who is supposed to be great doesn’t get as much credit for becoming great. I suspect most voters will be able to see past these factors, but it’s tough to make an argument for anyone else without them.

    Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers

    Archetype: Old dog, new trick

    2018-19 Stats: 27.9 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 53/0/64 shooting, 18.4 PER, 17.7% Usage Rate, .105 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 31.6 MPG, 14.5 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 53/43/63 shooting, 20.9 PER, 19.7% Usage Rate, .149 WS/48

    I don’t think Thompson will win the award, but he’s had a nice bounce-back year after playing only 96 games over the past two seasons. He’s the same terror he’s always been on the offensive glass, but Tristan has also recaptured the magic he had during the LeBron years as an interior defender. He’s averaging a career high in blocks, and his individual Defensive Rating is down 8 points from last season. On offense, Thompson is having a career year in almost every category, and he has expanded his game beyond just rolling to the rim and catching lobs. He’s developed more touch on in-between shots and floaters, and is even experimenting with midrange jumpers and the occasional corner three. The scrappy Cavs have started running 4/5 pick-and-rolls with Thompson and Kevin Love, a fun wrinkle.

    Again, Thompson is a bit of a dark horse in the context of this award, but I wanted to give him some shine because it’s been enjoyable to watch a talented-but-limited player blossom into something more.

    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

    Archetypes: Young Arrival, Situation Lottery

    2018-19 Stats: 26.5 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 48/37/80 shooting, 13.4 PER, 18.3% Usage Rate, .074 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 34.9 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 45/38/78 shooting, 16.2 PER, 25.5% Usage Rate, .083 WS/48

    As the nominal starting point guard for the overachieving Clippers last season, we saw flashes of the multifaceted two-way player SGA could become. Fast forward a year, and his circumstances have changed drastically, but his talent and polish for a young guy remain evident. Shai was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade, and he now finds himself as the starting off-guard next to fellow erstwhile Clipper Chris Paul in Oklahoma City’s deep rebuild. His minutes, touches, and shots have all skyrocketed, and the production has followed suit, even as he adjusts to life off the ball.

    SGA plays with a control and silky smoothness that belie his tender age. Most young players get sped up, slowed down, or redirected away from their spots by the defense, but Gilgeous-Alexander appears immune to all of those pitfalls. Possessing a budding star who has shown the versatility to be either a creator or a finisher depending on the lineup construction gives OKC oodles of team building options going forward as they pivot away from the Westbrook era. There are more levels for him still to reach, but make no mistake: SGA has arrived.

    Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic

    Archetype: Young Arrival

    2018-19 Stats: 26.6 MPG, 9.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, 43/32/82 shooting, 13.0 PER, 16.3% Usage Rate, .096 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 30.8 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.8 APG, 48/33/86 shooting, 18.8 PER, 17.0% Usage Rate, .160 WS/48

    The offensive numbers don’t jump off the screen, primarily because Isaac remains a low-usage, complementary player on that end, for better or worse. [Mostly worse, since Orlando is dead last in the league in scoring average. They’ve shown some signs of life over the last week or so, but their offense has largely been an abomination.] He has become a more willing and efficient attacker, with a better feel for basic playmaking reads. These improvements bode well if he ever assumes a more primary role in the offense.

    But his inclusion here is mainly about his defense. At only 22 years old, Isaac has already developed into one of the most versatile, intimidating defensive presences on the planet. An All-Defense nod is a near-certainty this season, with the third-year big man averaging an Olajuwon-esque 1.3 steals and 2.8 blocks per game and sporting a tidy 99 Defensive Rating and 5.5 Defensive BPM. On a more subjective note, taking the ball into his area just seems like an abjectly bad idea for an offensive player. He’s become the NBA equivalent of a shutdown cornerback, and his length, quickness, and anticipation give him the versatility to guard up and down the entire positional spectrum.

    Isaac’s defensive dominance is real, and if he begins to get more involved in the offense as his comfort level increases, his MIP candidacy could gain momentum throughout the season.

    Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers

    Archetypes: Started at the bottom now we here, Situation Lottery

    2018-19 Stats: 28.6 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, 51/43/93 (!!) shooting, 17.8 PER, 20.7% Usage Rate, .171 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 31.0 MPG, 19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 8.2 APG, 46/31/98 shooting, 22.6 PER, 27.2% Usage Rate, .198 WS/48

    It is perhaps disingenuous to say The President started at the bottom. Despite being drafted no. 36 overall in 2016, he did win Rookie of the Year honors in ’16-’17, so it’s not as though his ascent came out of the blue. [On a semi-related note, doesn’t it feel like a lot longer than three years ago when we were debating if Joel Embiid should win ROY despite playing only 31 games? Also, let’s not forget how much shit Brogdon took for winning that year. He was considered by many “experts” to be the worst ROY winner ever, despite the fact two of the previous three years, the winners were Andrew Wiggins and freaking Michael Carter-Williams. The moral of the story, as always: no one knows anything.]

    Brogdon improved steadily during his three years with Milwaukee, increasing his scoring, rebounding, and shooting percentage each year. He quickly became known as one of the league’s elite role players, and at times looked to be Milwaukee’s second-best player during their 60-win campaign and subsequent run to the East Finals last year. He is respected around the league for his high basketball IQ and his efficient, well-rounded game. From a pure performance standpoint, he has a pretty high bar to clear in the context of Most Improved.

    What propels him forward in this conversation is the perception around the league that his success was achieved as a complementary player, not as a primary option. Pundits chided the Bucks for not ponying up to keep Brogdon this past summer, and most felt he would be a snug fit in Indiana, but mainly as a sidekick to All-Star Victor Oladipo, an MIP alum himself. When news broke that Dipo would remain sidelined indefinitely as he recovers from surgery for a torn quad, the consensus became that Brogdon would be overburdened as a primary ball handler and creator.

    As he usually does, Brogdon has exceeded expectations. Tasked with more playmaking duties, his shooting efficiency has slipped a bit from the otherworldly numbers he posted last year alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, but otherwise, he’s been nothing short of a star. He’s scuffled a bit from deep — much like Siakam, he’s shooting a lot more off the dribble and from above-the-break — but he is among the league leaders in drives per game, and is currently 4th in the NBA in assists per game. The Pacers started out 0-3 but are now comfortably back in the East playoff picture at 8-6, and Brogdon is the biggest reason they have been able to stay afloat in Oladipo’s absence.

    There is still no firm timetable for Oladipo’s return, but just as his loss created the necessary conditions for Brogdon to jump into the MIP race, his reintegration to the team could be what eventually puts the kibosh on The President’s candidacy. Head coach Nate McMillan may decide he still wants the ball in Brodgon’s hands even once Dipo comes back, but no matter how the creation duties are divvied up, it seems fair to forecast a dip in Brogdon’s numbers with another lead guard in the fold. If he can counteract the projected loss in volume with a return to last year’s supernatural efficiency, he might stay in the mix. He does have a habit of proving everyone wrong, after all.

    Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat, and OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors

    Archetype: Situation Lottery

    Lumping these two together because they are both third-year guys on surprising top-tier Eastern teams who have taken advantage of larger roles afforded to them by the departure of the guys ahead of them on the depth chart.

    The banishment of Hassan Whiteside to Portland (who not-so-coincidentally suck all of a sudden) left a void in the middle Bam was clearly prepared to fill. Adebayo is averaging 13.8/ 10.2/ 4.5 on 60.7% shooting in 32.2 minutes a night. He’s been outstanding defensively (96 Defensive Rating, 6.1 Defensive BPM) and the team is +7.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. He remains a high-end lob threat, he’s become an excellent playmaker from the elbows, and he’s even experimenting with corner threes. [If he can hone that shot into a consistent weapon, his ceiling goes up considerably.]

    Anunoby inherited his minutes load from a slightly better teammate when Kawhi Leonard relocated his fun guy party to Hollywood. After a couple “one step forward, two steps back”-type seasons, Anunoby has finally gotten the chance to play consistent minutes and become the rangy, 3-and-D wing he was projected as out of college, and he is running with the opportunity. As with Isaac, his stats aren’t eye-popping: 12.2/ 5.4/ 1.5 in 29.4 MPG, but he also fills up the defensive box score with 1.0 steals and 1.1 blocks per game, and he’s shooting 57.4% overall and 52.0% from three, good for a cool 69.4% Effective Field Goal Percentage (3rd in the league).

    Finally healthy, OG has morphed into a true wing stopper. He uses his freakish length and mobility to check the opposition’s best perimeter threat on a nightly basis, which has the added bonus of saving Pascal Siakam from having to do the heavy lifting at both ends. Anunoby still has several areas in which he could continue to improve — attacking off the bounce and free throw shooting, most notably — but it’s heartening to see him start to tap into the vast potential scouts saw in him coming out of Indiana.

    Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans

    Archetypes: Post-hype Breakout, Young Arrival, Situation Lottery

    2018-19 Stats: 33.8 MPG, 18.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 50/33/68 shooting, 13.4 PER, 23.2% Usage Rate, .055 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 32.4 MPG, 25.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.1 APG, 52/45/75 shooting, 23.9 PER, 30.0% Usage Rate, .152 WS/48

    Coming into this season, there was a palpable sense among basketball people that Ingram’s career to this point had been something of a disappointment, but it’s more an indictment of our impatience with young players and the expectations placed on him (as a no. 2 overall pick and a Laker) than his actual game. Ingram has had his share of injuries already (including the scary blood clot issue which ended his season last year), but he has shown steady improvement when he’s been on the floor. The former Dukie is in his fourth year, but he’s still barely twenty-two. With the move to New Orleans (and out from under the long shadow of LeBron), it didn’t take a clairvoyant to see his breakout in 2019 coming, especially after the injury to Zion Williamson opened up a new world of opportunity within the Pelicans’ offense.

    The absence of Zion, along with the slow start to the season by Jrue Holiday, has afforded Ingram the green light to act as one of the main creators in New Orleans, a role which always seemed to suit him best when he got the chance in L.A. as well. With the Pels sitting at 6-9, Ingram’s hot start hasn’t exactly translated to the win column just yet (his on/off splits do not paint him in a flattering light, either), but the difference in his overall confidence is palpable. He still shoots about one-quarter of his shots from midrange, but it’s down from around 34% last season, and those long twos have, by and large, become threes this year. His volume and efficiency from deep are by far career highs. Ingram is still wiry, but his frame belies a surprising strength, which he is leveraging to attack the basket more and draw a career high number of free throws (which he’s also hitting at a career high rate, a good indicator the uptick from three is also real).

    Ingram’s statistical production may regress upon Zion’s return to the lineup, but even so, everything about his game is trending in the right direction. The Pelicans may have made a rare ‘oopsie’ under David Griffin by not offering Ingram a team-friendly contract extension when they had the opportunity. He will hit restricted free agency next summer, and based on his play and the dearth of big-time free agents in the upcoming class, his financial situation is about to be most improved as well.

    Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves

    Archetype: Post-hype Breakout

    2018-19 Stats: 34.8 MPG, 18.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 41/34/70 shooting, 12.4 PER, 24.4% Usage Rate, .012 WS/48

    2019-20 Stats: 34.7 MPG, 25.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47/33/71 shooting, 21.4 PER, 29.0% Usage Rate, .132 WS/48

    Saving the, shall we say, most controversial candidate for last. Wiggins is obviously a polarizing figure, and he takes A TON of flak — including in this space — for his bouts of inconsistency and sometimes apathetic play. In addition, we have seen him go through these small sample size scoring outbursts before, only to be unable to sustain it long-term. So it’s fair to to question whether his scorching start to the season represents more fool’s gold or real maturation and progress in his game.

    The public-facing narrative states now-full-time head coach Ryan Saunders has fostered a genuine connection with Wiggins, and that relationship is translating to Andrew’s play on the court. There is certainly something to the idea of being more comfortable in one’s workplace and the positive effect it can have on performance. Again, we don’t know if it will stick, but Wiggins seems to have bought into the Wolves’ vision of him as a player, and his game does indeed look different. He is attacking the basket with greater urgency, his shot diet is much more analytics-friendly (WAAAY fewer long twos early in the shot clock this year), and his playmaking has improved. His passing remains mostly paint-by-number, but he is at least making the proper reads and passes now, even if they are simple ones.

    Progress is progress, but there are still several areas of the game where Wiggins is lacking. Even though he’s been hitting them at a high rate, he shoots too many floaters for a player with such elite athleticism. His free throw and 3-point percentages remain mediocre at best. If he can’t become at least above-average from both levels, his ceiling will forever be capped. He looks a tad less spacey on defense, but the eye test and the analytics both still portray him as a net-negative on that end.

    I often pound the table about how we rush to judgment on players who come into the league super-young. Sure, some dudes just don’t have it, but it’s still unfair to write the book on these guys before they’ve had the chance to become the fully realized versions of themselves. Wiggins is already in Year Six, but he’s only 24 years old, the very beginning of his prime. Fool me twice and all that jazz, but if a highly touted prospect shows signs of blossoming into a star at the exact age where that sort of thing is supposed to happen, it’s probably a good idea not to dismiss it as a fluke. It’s fine to reserve judgment for a bit longer in Wiggins’ case, but if he does this all season, his narrative — much-maligned no. 1 overall pick who finally puts it together — could garner him a lot of votes.

    Even with all of these worthy candidates, it feels as though Luka-mania is going to be too hard for voters to ignore. Sure, we expect improvement in Year Two from a star, but the leap he has taken would make Scott Bakula jealous. A lot can (and will) change by April, but as of now, Doncic is the pick.

    Top Photo Credit: NBA.com